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  1. #136

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Just had a look at my fishing diary (bear in mind I have only been diarising fishing trips off shore for 3 1/2 years) I haven't caught any snapper ever in Feb/March, in other months of the year however it is a different story. Funny the amount caught has increased over those years, not fishing more often, not fishing any differently, Just more snapper around. must be the ones too smart for the researhers to count.

    The Feb closure is really going to save the snapper hey....

  2. #137

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by Adam_G View Post
    Just had a look at my fishing diary (bear in mind I have only been diarising fishing trips off shore for 3 1/2 years) I haven't caught any snapper ever in Feb/March, in other months of the year however it is a different story. Funny the amount caught has increased over those years, not fishing more often, not fishing any differently, Just more snapper around. must be the ones too smart for the researhers to count.

    The Feb closure is really going to save the snapper hey....
    The researchers are not counting them, you and the commercial guys are.


  3. #138

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealAndy View Post
    The researchers are not counting them, you and the commercial guys are.
    Andy,
    Perhaps DPI should be doing some counting. I put a suggested means of checking fish stocks on the bottom of page 6. It may not be great science but it would be no worse that a diver counting grey nurse sharks in a few locations.
    ROLL TIDE, ROLL.................

    Regards,
    Peter


    http://www.superiorterminals.com.au

  4. #139

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by peterbo3 View Post
    Andy,
    Perhaps DPI should be doing some counting. I put a suggested means of checking fish stocks on the bottom of page 6. It may not be great science but it would be no worse that a diver counting grey nurse sharks in a few locations.
    Catch cards are a far better solution. You will get more and varied data.

    The grey nurse shark issue I think you are reffering to was not to show biomass or catch effort, it was to disprove the greens in court.


  5. #140

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealAndy View Post
    You are just plain wrong, there is nothing more I can say.

    Have you actually looked at the assement and review? They have done some excellent modeling on the figures, and even using least catch effort by rec anglers the biomass still shows a decline. This is not just some crap a DPI scientist made up, its time tested statistics.
    Andy,

    I have refrained for much of this thread, watching to see how the discusion moved, to see how many people would truly stand up and be counted.

    I dont know why but your comments on this thread have all the markings of someone working for DPI, or trying to work for DPI, seems a stark change in attitude.

    you know as well as I do that the basis used for the rec take were phone polls, as DPI has no other way to gauge the rec's take. Why havent you mentioned this fact anywhere?

    All the modelling in the world based on garbage will return garbage, phone polls are not science.

    As for the DPI - EPA thing, that is the way things work in politics, except DPI werent smart enought to get in first and O'l Tim Mulh is now trying to get some publicity, to hold onto his job, dont be fooled into thinking he is trying to do the right thing, he is only looking for an avenue to get publicity for himself.

    As I have said before, my argument is with DPI and the lack of science.


    Regards
    Honda.

  6. #141

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Catch cards are not a good move IMO.
    If they show there are plenty of snapper caught, bag and size limits will change for the worse.
    If they show that indeed the snapper captures are in decline, bag and size limits along with closures will be implemented.
    This is a lose lose situation for the rec fisho.
    We are facing similar situations in other areas of this labor government.
    Take a look at Racing Qld Limited for starters!

  7. #142

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by honda900 View Post
    Andy,

    I have refrained for much of this thread, watching to see how the discusion moved, to see how many people would truly stand up and be counted.

    I dont know why but your comments on this thread have all the markings of someone working for DPI, or trying to work for DPI, seems a stark change in attitude.

    you know as well as I do that the basis used for the rec take were phone polls, as DPI has no other way to gauge the rec's take. Why havent you mentioned this fact anywhere?

    All the modelling in the world based on garbage will return garbage, phone polls are not science.

    As for the DPI - EPA thing, that is the way things work in politics, except DPI werent smart enought to get in first and O'l Tim Mulh is now trying to get some publicity, to hold onto his job, dont be fooled into thinking he is trying to do the right thing, he is only looking for an avenue to get publicity for himself.

    As I have said before, my argument is with DPI and the lack of science.


    Regards
    Honda.
    I have met the scientists at DPI, and I think the work is up to standard. In fact, I sat there in the DPI office with Chris Ryan and question the validity of the statistics they were using, when they offered to meet again at another time and discuss the material. Furthermore, I had email correspondence with several people at DPI regarding the science behind it.

    As luck would have it one of the statistical methods they used in the snapper assessment I use in the gambling industry, and I know they work because my business makes money from them working. So I look over the work in that snapper assessment and I certainly find it convincing.

    How about this, I will throw a spanner in the works here. The monto carlo series is used in a lot of areas. One of them weather forcasting

    Anyway, I am over arguing. My backround is in science, my whole working life has been doing electrics/electronics and software. I have studied at uni where they thrust the phsyics of electrical engineering on you. So I make money from the discoveries of sciene, and I really love doing it. I love learning all the new stuff science presents us with everyday. This is why I am so passionate about promoting science.

    The DPI guys are doing good work, but there life is not made any easier by restricted budgets and hostility and lack of information from the sectors they are tyring to help. We need to be working with these guys and supporting them, and fighting the beurocracy that is preventing them doing the job.

    One of the most frustrating things about talking to these guys, is that you always get led into the DG's office or some other senior political management and they basically ignore the bulk of what the scientists do and proceed to tell you this is what is going to happen.

    Like I said though, its not worth the argument anymore. Does not matter what happens, everyone in the department gets tarred with the same brush. I cant be bothered argunig the point any further.


  8. #143

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealAndy View Post
    We need to be working with these guys and supporting them, and fighting the beurocracy that is preventing them doing the job.

    One of the most frustrating things about talking to these guys, is that you always get led into the DG's office or some other senior political management and they basically ignore the bulk of what the scientists do and proceed to tell you this is what is going to happen.

    .
    andy this is almost exactly what people you've been arguing with have been hinting at (myself included), the beurocracy has not got a system implemented to collect meaningful data, thus the scientists are working off meaningless data and the results are also therefore meaningless until this is remedied

    perhaps i was unclear in my earlier posts

    my problem is mainly with the data going in, and this was confirmed/shared by the scientists who independently reviewed the assessment. i'm sure the scientists are good at their job and aren't sitting around having coffee breaks all day while the secretary writes out a stock assessment, however what they produce in the form of a stock assessment is only ever going to be as good as the data

    like you, I am utterly over posting in this argument as every point has be reiterated many times however i can't get over the obvious fact that if you put garbage into a statistical model you will recieve garbage out the other end.

    the best option 5, imo, is to cease all proposed changes to a management plan and concentrate all efforts on obtaining proper data. fisheries scientists do not believe the snapper stock is in imminent threat of collapse and that much is stated, so a couple of years of proper data collection has to be the best result for the fishery, that way fisheries can act decisively on real data whichever way it points and none of us have grounds to complain about shoddy management.

  9. #144

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by danners View Post
    andy this is almost exactly what people you've been arguing with have been hinting at (myself included), the beurocracy has not got a system implemented to collect meaningful data, thus the scientists are working off meaningless data and the results are also therefore meaningless until this is remedied

    perhaps i was unclear in my earlier posts

    my problem is mainly with the data going in, and this was confirmed/shared by the scientists who independently reviewed the assessment. i'm sure the scientists are good at their job and aren't sitting around having coffee breaks all day while the secretary writes out a stock assessment, however what they produce in the form of a stock assessment is only ever going to be as good as the data

    like you, I am utterly over posting in this argument as every point has be reiterated many times however i can't get over the obvious fact that if you put garbage into a statistical model you will recieve garbage out the other end.

    the best option 5, imo, is to cease all proposed changes to a management plan and concentrate all efforts on obtaining proper data. fisheries scientists do not believe the snapper stock is in imminent threat of collapse and that much is stated, so a couple of years of proper data collection has to be the best result for the fishery, that way fisheries can act decisively on real data whichever way it points and none of us have grounds to complain about shoddy management.
    Damn you man, I promised myself I would not respond any more!

    Statistics are a great thing. I use statistic to make sure you lose your money at the pokies! Well not quite true, but the punter gets back around 90% of what he/she puts in. The house keeps 10%.

    Now I may not have a lot of data on those statistics, but we use models to predict the outcome. When you first start off, you have little data, but you can glean some info out of it to get an idea of the result. The more data we put in, the better the result, and the less error we get. So it may go from 40/60 to 30/70 in your favour. Of course, it can go the other way too, it could end up 50/50. After 500000 samples it becomes very accurate, and the uncertainty is minimal. The modelling is not incorrect, in fact it is the total opposite, its very accurate. However to reduce the uncertainty, you need to obtain more data.

    Pokies are totally random. So how do we get the stats on them? Simple, once again we use modelling to figure out all the combinations that are possible, and apply that to another model to come up with an answer. Same applies to lottery, keno or any other form of gambling. You can also apply the same theory to fish biomass, however this is when it starts to get specific and I can eleaborate on that.

    Because we dont have enough data initially, we have to quantify the error and uncertainty. Thats the part that the snapper assesment reviewers are talking about, and infact the authors of the snapper assesment also discuss this.

    So to express the uncertainty in figures, what we then do is model using worst case examples at both extremes. This information is all available in the snapper assesment.

    The only way then to reinforce that model is by adding more data. Hopefully it goes the otherway, and our stocks are still good. But from what the DPI guys have to work with now it does not look good. Modelling using extremes based on rec input also looks grim.

    How did I go? AM I getting there? BTW. I am adding this info to a document I am writing to try and explain the whole concept in simple terms.


  10. #145

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    As luck would have it one of the statistical methods they used in the snapper assessment I use in the gambling industry, and I know they work because my business makes money from them working. So I look over the work in that snapper assessment and I certainly find it convincing.


    Ok well I have it at 5 to 1 that their science is bullshit!!!!!


    My backround is in science, my whole working life has been doing electrics/electronics and software. I have studied at uni where they thrust the phsyics of electrical engineering on you. So I make money from the discoveries of sciene, and I really love doing it. I love learning all the new stuff science presents us with everyday.


    And the quantum theory based on electrical engineering makes you a fisheries expert?? How??

  11. #146

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by ShaneC View Post
    As luck would have it one of the statistical methods they used in the snapper assessment I use in the gambling industry, and I know they work because my business makes money from them working. So I look over the work in that snapper assessment and I certainly find it convincing.


    Ok well I have it at 5 to 1 that their science is bullshit!!!!!


    My backround is in science, my whole working life has been doing electrics/electronics and software. I have studied at uni where they thrust the phsyics of electrical engineering on you. So I make money from the discoveries of sciene, and I really love doing it. I love learning all the new stuff science presents us with everyday.


    And the quantum theory based on electrical engineering makes you a fisheries expert?? How??
    There you go. So I explain the scientific principle and get mocked. Your right Shane, waste of my time.

    I shall not bother explaining it any further.


  12. #147

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Who is mocking you???

    Mate, simply put, you have likened the basis for a closure that affects the livelihoods of thousands of people on the likelihood that a horse comes home in the third at Randwick!!!

    I was never out to mock you, I am simply trying to understand the reasoning that you have to support what is being proposed. It's easy to duck for cover and decide you no longer want to play, but I am sure I am not the Lone Ranger in requesting what your motive is for supporting a notion that is yet to have actual scientific data to back it up.

    So... the statistical methods that came to reach this agreement that you support, I would presume that these would be available for viewing by the general public?? You have seen them, have spoken to your colleagues at the DPI, so surely you can share with everyone the statistics that have brought this about??

    I would suggest that the data collected would have been collated into a graph showing at least the where, when and how snapper were caught would surely have been made to justify the timing and the magnitude of the current and future closures.

    I would also be interested to see the reasons why Pearl Perch and Trag Jew were also dragged into the closures, obviously there was a study involved and the results should be shown.

    Once you provide this info which you are so quick to support, give me the facts and then, maybe I will take you seriously. You are wayyyy off the mark.

    Shane

  13. #148

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by ShaneC View Post
    Who is mocking you???

    Mate, simply put, you have likened the basis for a closure that affects the livelihoods of thousands of people on the likelihood that a horse comes home in the third at Randwick!!!

    I was never out to mock you, I am simply trying to understand the reasoning that you have to support what is being proposed. It's easy to duck for cover and decide you no longer want to play, but I am sure I am not the Lone Ranger in requesting what your motive is for supporting a notion that is yet to have actual scientific data to back it up.

    So... the statistical methods that came to reach this agreement that you support, I would presume that these would be available for viewing by the general public?? You have seen them, have spoken to your colleagues at the DPI, so surely you can share with everyone the statistics that have brought this about??

    I would suggest that the data collected would have been collated into a graph showing at least the where, when and how snapper were caught would surely have been made to justify the timing and the magnitude of the current and future closures.

    I would also be interested to see the reasons why Pearl Perch and Trag Jew were also dragged into the closures, obviously there was a study involved and the results should be shown.

    Once you provide this info which you are so quick to support, give me the facts and then, maybe I will take you seriously. You are wayyyy off the mark.

    Shane
    Everything you are asking for is written in the assessment. I am not wasting my time explaining it anymore.


  14. #149

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Couldn't be bothered reading through the however many pages there are in this thread....but certainly one thing sticks out like dogs balls......Ecofishers Qld is worth about as much as a used bit of toilet paper.

    Andy, is it not your job, as president of Ecofishers Qld, to represent the rec fishing community to lobby and challenge the Govt on fisheries related issues?? So far from your responses all that i have gleaned is that the individual has to go out and do all the leg work, then and only then will Ecofishers Qld, step in and suck up all the juicy credit for publicity and more dollars in the kitty. Its clear from this thread, the recs have spoken, and the over whelming majority think the 'research' into snappe stocks is all bullshit, but you want proof? So you are admitting, and encooraging the train of thought that the rec fishing sector is guilty and must prove its innocence? Funny I thought I lived in Australia and it was the other way round.

    The rec sector has spoken, now its your turn to challenge the govt, remember they are taking away what is already ours, they should have to prove their case, NOT the other way round.

    Remember "Apathy is the enemy"....well with the president of our so called representative lobby group being one of the apathetic, seems we are pretty screwed right now. maybe the Ecofishers tag line could be chaged to "Ecofishers Qld....all puff no stuff"

    Probably get in the shit for the above, but i don't care, it needed to be said

  15. #150

    Re: Snapper Stocks - Another View

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott nthQld View Post
    Couldn't be bothered reading through the however many pages there are in this thread....but certainly one thing sticks out like dogs balls......Ecofishers Qld is worth about as much as a used bit of toilet paper.

    Andy, is it not your job, as president of Ecofishers Qld, to represent the rec fishing community to lobby and challenge the Govt on fisheries related issues?? So far from your responses all that i have gleaned is that the individual has to go out and do all the leg work, then and only then will Ecofishers Qld, step in and suck up all the juicy credit for publicity and more dollars in the kitty. Its clear from this thread, the recs have spoken, and the over whelming majority think the 'research' into snappe stocks is all bullshit, but you want proof? So you are admitting, and encooraging the train of thought that the rec fishing sector is guilty and must prove its innocence? Funny I thought I lived in Australia and it was the other way round.

    The rec sector has spoken, now its your turn to challenge the govt, remember they are taking away what is already ours, they should have to prove their case, NOT the other way round.

    Remember "Apathy is the enemy"....well with the president of our so called representative lobby group being one of the apathetic, seems we are pretty screwed right now. maybe the Ecofishers tag line could be chaged to "Ecofishers Qld....all puff no stuff"

    Probably get in the shit for the above, but i don't care, it needed to be said
    Maybe you should check your facts first Scott.
    I am not a part of ECOFishers!
    I resigned from my role there a long time ago, and I was never the president either, I was the secretary.

    Furthermore, I think you should get your facts right about ECOFishers too.

    Personal attacks are not acceptable under the rules of these forums
    Last edited by mod2; 06-01-2011 at 04:45 PM.


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