Wind predictions

[Sean]

Anywhere you can get wind predictions further forward than the BOM 3 days, it would be handy for making tentative plans for weekend. Thanks

[Kerry]

"Prediction", now that's another form of "forecast" and if forecast=prediction then easier to shift the weekend but mind you forecasts are just that FORECASTS. All these different silly daylight time zones :o nobody really knows what day it is until it blows Friday arvo ::) so may as well shift the whole weekend onto weekend time, flexible of course one week it could be ahead and the following week behind and that would make a whole new meaning to a long weekend.

But there's a catch when it's blowing weekends are cancelled and that's called boss's time and there's obviously going to be a lot of that ;D "forecasted" or is that "predicted" :-/

Cheers, Kerry.

[Surfwx]

Sean,

You can go to FNMOC (https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp) and produce charts like this:



http://www.users.bigpond.com/surf_wx/images/chart-image.gif

for just about anywhere in the world out to 144 hours

But whether they are worth the screen space they are reproduced on is a different matter.

3 days for any forecast is about it. Anyone tells you any different they are full of ^$%#^5.

[Sean]

Thanks for your help, I see what you mean about that chart what a great piece of advise that is. ;D ;D

[littlejim]

Sean,

this one has been mentioned by some cluey forum members. Seems pretty good for the Illawarra/South Coast area:

www.buoyweather.com

[Surfwx]

The thing you have to remember with sites like bouyweather, and the myriads of other ones, is that they are just reproducing data taken from the same source, generally the Wave Watch 3 (WW3) computer model.

It’s similar to tidal data, you can find in data form, graph form, pretty java scripts but at the end of the day it’s just the same dataset reproduced differently.

[agnes_jack]

Sean I find that i can predict the wind velosity for any given day very accuratly in fact i can almost manipulate it. I know quiye a few others who also use the same system on a very regular basis. All you have to do is calculate which day you wish to go fishing up to two months ahead organize all your tackle, tee up your mates, get the boat serviced, organize to get the day off and a baby sitter , then iknow beyond all reasonable doubt that on that day it will blow a dog off its chain. This is the best system yet devised by man. Try it sometime. Hope this helps.
agnes jack

[Sean]

Yes mate, I have seen that system work many days, the best way I find to make the wind stop is to go to work, and if you want a day where it gets up in the afternoon just finish work early to go fishing. :D

[littlejim]

sufrwx,

I agree with you about sites like buoyweather, that's why I kept records for about ten days. Charted their predictions against the weather stations near Jervis Bay that put the acual wind speeds up on the net for the times that buoyweather forecast theirs. Also compared it with what happened on the water on the days I went out. Wasn't perfect, but so close at speeds under ten knots (whaty I was after) that I'm going to use it to work out when to go and when to sleep in.
Try it out. Record their forecast for 4 days ahead off a virtual buoy near you, then look up the BOM records for the nearest all weather station to you, and see how well it did.

[Surfwx]

littlejim,

The only thing I don’t like about sites like bouyweather is that you are only getting data from one computer model, when there are about, IMHO, half a dozen that cover Australia and are worth looking at.

GASP – Australian model goes out to 7 days
LAPS – Australian model goes out 48 hours
MesoLaps – Australian model, small scale generally accurate but only goes out 36 hours
GFS – Euro model goes out to 7 days
NOGAPS – US model goes out 7 days (the WW3 is part of this) has just started to be issued 4 times a day, use to be only twice daily.
MM5 – it’s the US equivalent of the Australian MesoLaps and has just been extended to cover Australia.

The problem is at times one or more of them tend to loose the plot and just churn out crap. Deciding which one is right is the hard bit (when you see a forecast that is ……….. ??? you can safely bet that the bloke who issued it took a punt on one of the models and it ended up being the wrong one)

The thing I really like about the FNMOC My Map site is that you can setup your own area of interest, say the NSW south coast, and then view all available model outputs for that area. It looks a bit daunting when you first check it out but basically you just:

select your area
select the model run (generally 00z or 12z)
finally the field you want displayed - most of the fields you needn’t bother with, the ones to look out for are:

sfc istachs/wind, slp
(Surface wind and station level pressure)

sig ww ht, sfc wind
(Significant wave height and surface wind)

swell ww ht, dir
(Swell wave height and direction)

swell ww prd & dir
(swell wave period and direction)

The longer you use each of the models the more you get a general idea which one to use under different conditions but more often than not they are all wrong because the weather is a pain in the &^^&&((^^ :D

[littlejim]

surf,

thanks for those. After any sites like that. I whinged to BOM about not putting the Point Perpendicular winds up on the net; the ramp is directly opposite the Point, a few miles over, but they said the station was not at their standardized height and they weren't going to put the readings up, so I could go and have sexual intercourse with my hiking footwear, or words to that effect.