Stop bagging the BoM

[cod_botherer]

I am sick of the BoM getting a bagging on this site.

If you baggers don't trust their forecasts then do your own from the incredible myriad of data they provide for FREE.

Then see how you go.

Shut up and go fishing.

PS I am not employed by - nor know anyone from - the BoM

[nofrills]

we're fisherman its our duty 8)

[SeaHunt]

Why don't YOU go fishing and stop typing pointless crap. :P

A lot of fishermen rely on a fairly accurate forcast, and if its totally wrong it could ultimately cost some of them their lives.
You don't head 40 k offshore without a fairly reliable forecast. :P

[cod_botherer]

So I guess you've been out a few times?

Are you dead yet?

[Black_Rat]

We would go fishing if they got the forecast right #:P ::) ;D

[Mick]

Mostly they get it right, sometimes they get it wrong and even sometimes they get it totally wrong.
Spare a thought for people living in remote area's. My nearest weather report is 200kms away. Weather changes alot over 200km, especially when the rain attracting mountains give way to flat, semi-arid plains. Hence, my closest weather report may say scattered showers with gusty winds and outside my window are clear skies and light winds. mmmm..., do I go fishing?

[Jeremy]

I think the BOM could do alot better. There used to be an updated forecast available at 3.30 am to check before you left home, now you have to reply on the 9.30 pm from the night before and check the 6.30 update when you're out on the water. I think the current wind and swell data could also be alot more reliable - most of the time there is no info available for most of the stations. They have the technology, just not the will (or the money?) to deliver.

Jeremy

[Mick]

I think it would be great if we could be told how long the still conditions will hang around for, in the mornings. On shore winds can start at 7am or 11am depending on the pressure system and temperatures of the land and the sea. How good would it be if you could be assured the on shore winds won't start blowing until 10.30am? I have pondered this thought since i was a wee little begger in my surfing days.

[sharkbait]

do your own from the incredible myriad of data they provide for FREE.



Correct me if I'm wrong but

Government agency = tax = not free

[Sportfish_5]

Life is short - dont get so worked up

[Heath]

If you baggers don't trust their forecasts then do your own from the incredible myriad of data they provide for FREE.

Then see how you go.



I do & go fishing twice as often :-* :-* :-*

[devocean]

The BOM uses a number of bouys to forcast the weather. You can access information from these weather buoys from the internet. They tell you the exact wave heght and wind at that buoy at that exact time. You also have to remember that they do predict wind gusts can be up to 40 percent stronger than predicted. I am lucky it takes 3 minutes to drive to the beach to see how rough it is. If you are not as lucky ring a bait shop near where you fish and ask them what the conditions are like. Finding out about the weather is all part of planning a trip and if it does get rough well thats fishing I guess.

[Moffy]

ohh the Bureau of Maybeology isn't that bad ;D ::)

ditto heath.

[SeaHunt]

So I guess you've been out a few times?

Are you dead yet?

Yeah I'm dead. # :P # This is a ghost typing. #::)

But before I died, I did go out one day, and it took about 45 minutes to get out on fairly flat seas and over 4 hours to get back,(nearly ran out of petrol), forecast said light 10-15 knot winds no mention of a gusty SE change about lunch time. #???
As Jeremy said, I am sure they can do better, the technology is basically the same in the US. I am sure the guys who press the button for the space shuttle to go up would need it to be a bit more accurate than we get.

[Jeremy]

Devocean,

Is this what you mean by "The BOM uses a number of bouys to forcast the weather. You can access information from these weather buoys from the internet. They tell you the exact wave heght and wind at that buoy at that exact time"

WEATHER REPORTS
Time Wind Weather Seas Swell
EST Dir Knots Ht Ht/Length Dir
Double Is Pt - - -
Maroochydore 1400 NNE 16
Brisbane Ap 1400 NE 6
Cape Moreton 1400 ENE 10
Spitfire Chnl 1400 NE 13
Inner Beacon 1400 ENE 10
Banana Bank 1400 NNE 7
G C Seaway 1400 SE 13
Coolangatta 1400 SE 9
Point Lookout 1200 N 5 1 <2 NE

There is alot of missing information here. I know the wave heights can be accessed on a different site, but that is not the point.

Jeremy

[seafox]

I don’t know about you guys in the Brisbane area but here in Gladstone we can ring the Rocky met 24 hours a day (and get to speak to a real person) to get the latest weather updates usually only a few hours old but generally reliable enough to plan your trip.

[devocean]

Jeremy I dont think you are on the same site as me. But like I said ring a local shop to checjk the forcast. When I am keen to go somewhere where I cant see the weather myself I ring a beach front shopo and ask them what the conditions are like and what they have been like in the last few days, which is a good general overview of the weather. Also you could always just learn to read a weather map yourself.

[baldyhead]

I have been using the BOM for around 30 years now and yep they sometimes get it wrong and sometimes horribly wrong, but we have to remember that weather forecasting/predicting is not an exact science...yet.
There are a hell of a lot of variables to contend with, hence the "not an exact science".
When we go for a fish especially off shore we have to be aware that sometimes the fishing trip can be possibly life threatening for a variety of reasons.
In the old days I had the ability to phone the light house keeper and inquire about the weather @ Low and Fitzroy islands. I reckon those blokes had a sense of humour as boy did they get it wrong sometimes! They only had to look out the window to see what the conditions were like.
Then I was speaking to a mate who told me that he used to ring those blokes (or their wives) at 4.30 am to get a forecast and a FORECAST did he get hahaha. We musta drove them mad I reckon haha
Getting back to the BOM, the boys and gals @ the Cairns Airport BOM are good to fone (40359777) for a report and I usually ask them to give the crystal ball a rub and give me an idea of what to expect in a few hours hence and they are usually right.
I have heaps of praise for these people who are doing a fine job.
By the way I have nothing to do with the BOM except to use their service to help me make up my mind whether to go fishing or not.
cheers baldy

[Derek Bullock]

The wave monitoring buoys are not part of the BOM but managed by the EPA.

http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/coast_and_oceans/waves_and_tides/wave_monitoring/

If you play around on the site it gives up all sorts of data.


Derek

[Fishinmishin]

Arm yourself with more info to make your best judgment-current station conditions, BOM forecasts, mean sea level pressure prognosis, EPA marker readings and watch the clouds. I, and everyone else, has the right to knock BOM with some of the forecasts they put out (whether or not anyone else could do it better) as they often result in bad trips and dangerous situations. So Cod Botherer, as a wise man once said, if you don't like our opinions why don't you just 'shut up and go fish'.

[DICER]

Anthing can be better than 5 degrees with temperatures dipping below tonight....!

[cod_botherer]

Yes, well, in a more concillatory tone, thanks for the feedback.

I guess the point is that we are responsible for our own safety. Please don't rely on one source of information which has inherent weaknesses.

I guess a 94 year old is allowed to get grumpy somethimes ;) 8)

[NQCairns]

Cod you made it to 94! just that should keep the storm clouds and wind away.
IF I make 94 I will buy everyone who posted before me here, a lambourgini with a tow bar ;D ;D

[bignick]

I reckon being a weather man is the best job in the world. You get to tell everyone how good things are or going to be. You can get it wrong time after time and not lose your job and people can lose their lives and/or livlihoods based on what you say, and, when you do get it wrong and the worst happens, the weather man receives no punishment or penalty whatsoever. Sounds like a good gig to me. Where do I apply?

Cheers,
BIGNICK.

[cod_botherer]

Maybe we should pay them a bonus whenever it's a fine calm day?

[subzero]

THE FOLLOWING IS MY OPINION ONLY AND IS BASED ON SEVERAL CONVERSATIONS WITH ONE OF THE BOM STAFF MEMBERS ABOUT 3 YEARS AGO... I DONT CLAIM IT TO BE FACTUAL, IT IS BASED TO THE BEST OF MY MEMORY AND I WOULD SUGGEST IS RELATIVELY ACCURATE :-X

Weather is far from an exact science as already stated.
The Bom do most of their predictions based on historical data. This data is fed into 3 computers, 2 of them written with a very similar program that looks for weather systems and how they have progressed on PREVIOUS occassions. No 2 weather systems are identical and therefore not totaly predictable. When matches are found, if the 2 computers agree with each other, then as I understand it the forcast will be relatively accurate... if they dont... then the poor bloke at Bom has to make a decision after consultation with the rest of the team deciding which system is right, not always the right one... but the best one he can offer... the third computer, it usually argues with the first two... but sometimes no 3 gets it right, its software is more of an educated one a bit radical in its thoughts, but is flawed in the way it has yet to learn through experience... as time goes on, it will become "More switched on" as I understand it... When all 3 computers agree with each other, then the forcast is and will be accurate, the BOM guys can rest easy in the knowledge that fisherman wont be wanting to show them the pointy end of the gaff hook ;D
Forcasters will err on the side of caution, rather than risk peoples lives, as they can be held responsible like anyone, if they are found to have been negligent and this resulted in someones death in particular... these are those days when they say you will have 15-20kn in the morning 25-30kn in the afternoon and they dont eventuate till lunch time and everyone gets all cranky because they could have fished early in the day and didnt.
Mad keen dedicated fisho's on this site get up, go early, and are back before 10am but Mum, Dad and the kids head out about that time... its not exact enough to say offer 2 forcasts splitting times as people will take it for gospel and then they get in more strife... they do the best they can, with the resourses they have...

I am guessing that forcasting may have been regarded as more accurate in the old days, this is LIKELY the result now days of less reporting of actual OBSERVATIONS being reported to the BOM by Trawlers, Cruise Liners, Rec Fish'os and most importantly Light House Keepers.... Generally reporting is no longer required and lighthouses are unmanned so the Johny on the spot with the weather rolling in doesnt get reported.... in the old days Bom would take note of their regulars, get several that were very good at discerning what was happening and was likely to happen operating in the same area, and amend their forcasts to include these highly valued reports....

I am a bid fan of these guys, they do a very thankless job and most would rather tell you they are prostitutes, murderers and pirates with 1 nut, HIV, and piles than tell you they work for Bom.... as boy do they cop it when they get it wrong, NEVER get a pat on the back when they get it right, sadly no one will remember the days they said stay at home and were right, they will ONLY remember the days they said stay at home and got it wrong... yep they get paid, yep its their choice, but I dont think what they cop is fair just the same.... sooner them than me

Why do I know a little about how the Bom do it, I had the pleasure of working occassionaly on Roster with a young Lady who was a member of ours at Vicky Point before being transfered to another branch who worked for Bom... she could walk out the door, look at the skys, tell you where, when, how much rain was going to fall at a glance... of course in the real world they can NOT really offer a PERSONAL OPINION of weather through observation ONLY as if they did, got it wrong, then how do they PROVE in a coroners court how the came to their conclusion which may have been based over 20-30 years as a Meteorologist... cant be done, go to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200!!!! Hence why they cover their bums with the "PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height" issued with each forcast... like most Corperations, and the Gov is no different, maybe slightly worse, they will hang their staff out to dry rather than accept legal responsibility when the dollars are being handed out in the court room...

Well thats MY OPINION, I have broad shoulders, I have made the bullets, whos going to take a shot at me first [smiley=rifle.gif]

[DaneCross]

OK, so who do we believe...
BoM:
DOUBLE ISLAND POINT TO COOLANGATTA
Wednesday until midnight: #SE winds about 20 knots, easing a little at night.
Seas to 2 metres on a 1.5 to 2 metre SE swell. Isolated showers.
Thursday: #SE/NE winds about 15 knots. Seas to 1.5 metres.
Friday: #NW/NE winds 15/20 knots at first increasing to 20/25 knots in the
afternoon.
Saturday: #NW winds 20/30 knots.

OR...
Buoyweather: (from attached screanshot or http://buoy.ocens.net/wxnav.jsp?region=AE&program=nww3BW1&grb=nww3&latitude=-27.0&longitude=153.75&zone=10&units=e )
Sat 13th = 4am, 5kn W
# # # # # # = 10am, 2kn ENE
# # # # # # = 4pm, 7kn NNE

Cheers,
Dane

[budgie]

Can someone tell me where the guru, that can predict what nature is about to do, lives ??? Weather is unpredictible (i think) but if not, i will plan my next few years fishing now so i dont miss out ;) Sorry, but i have tried to work out weather patterns for myself, and it is always a gamble. Each part of this great country is different and the BOM issue broad forecasts, best to ask the locals ;D ;D

[aquarius]

NO ONES PERFECT.....IF IN DOUBT DON'T GO OUT!!!!!!!

Cheers Brent ;D

[Sportfish_5]

Dane - next time can you open youre GPS mark folder and zoom in a bit ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

[cod_botherer]

DC

Sorry if I misunderstand but is that a comparison of a 4-5 day outlook against actual results?

If so, what do you make of that?

Cheers

[DaneCross]

The chart is just an outlook chart - top row being swell prediction, bottom being wind prediction. The number above the red bar is the maximum predicted (gust/wave peak), the number inside the red bar is the sustained wind strength/swell height.
It would be interesting to see a chart like the one you describe, a prediction vs actual results chart...

Greg, theres nothing to see inside that GPS marks folder ;) ;D ;D

Cheers,
Dane

[BigE]

cheers to all you buddding weather men out there............ my trick is always consult with the rock & string if in doubt. [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif] [smiley=jester.gif]

[MulletMan]

BOM is correct about 80-85% of the time! Forecasts in Victoria and the southern states tends to better than that due the fact the weather systems are very definitive and much easier to track and outguess. Queensland weather patterns can be more elusive due their geographic distance from the above, in fact in the tropics a miserable 1/2 of a degree in temperature rise can generate a monster storm and change in the weather. It's not an exact science and :-X I wonder how many Boaties really understand the complexities of the weather and appreciate why boats are hanging off their anchors when the BOM said it should be calm. Maybe a should stick a weather and tide quiz up here? Nah, Ausfish guys will get it all right, but.............

[Black_Rat]

Found this link
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/marine/marine.jsp?district=MQ00
Look at all three sites before heading out I guess #:-/ and choose the best forecast (condition wise) #;) and go fishing #;D ;D ;D

[Kerry]

It's also apparent that some need to review actually what a "forecast" is and in many cases the area it covers.

As Seafox mentioned some offices (such as Rocky) go live on VHF several times a day with the forecast and conditions and the feedback they get back of the "nowcast" generally goes towards updating the forecast.

As if some are expecting a "forecast" to be perfect and this tends to show an expectation that they might not understand actually what to make of a "forecast" or how to use a "forecast".

Cheers, Kerry.

[gunna]

I think the loss of lives a couple years ago in the Sydney/Hobart shows that with all the equipment and data that forecasters have - mother nature is still a fickle beast and just does what she wants sometimes. I guess thats what the meaning of "prediction" is all about. Its a "best guide".

[Kerry]

That Sydney/Hobart incident was interesting as even the level of weather that was predicted (and it was predicting basically very bad weather) all the indications given were apparently not really ignored but maybe not understood or maybe not wanted to understand the conditions being the Sydney/Hobart and all.

Lets face it the race started with a gale warning in force. An hour into the race the gale warning was updated to a storm warning with predicted 55 knot winds gusting to 70 knots.

Seas were "forecast" to significant wave heights of 7 metres and reaching 13 metres and this was forecast an hour into the race but did any skipper head the warnings and turn back :-X

Mother nature might be a bitch but ignoring the warnings and has been suggested out of the inquiry not really understanding the warnings is done at ones own peril.

Cheers, Kerry.

[subzero]

Spot on Kerry, and of course the other key factor of that "Maritime Disaster" was that those boats were ill equipped for ocean racing with the safety gear that they carried and were required to carry up untill then, (Has been tightened since then) and the crews were ill trained for emergencys and in how to use the equipment that they had.... one crewmember in an upturned inflatable liferaft went to the extent of cutting a hole in the bottom of the raft (Which had be come the top), so he could see out... consequently, you guessed it, the wind upturned the liferaft again, and that was literally the end of him.... These were very experienced yachtsman who chose to ignore the initial warnings, and then when the forecast was updated a few decided they new better and tried to carry on regardless, most thankfully headed for shelter or it could have been a lot worse... thats what I heard anyway...
Cheers Lloyd