View Full Version : Cyclone heads up - FNQ
NQCairns
07-02-2005, 05:36 AM
Hi all just incase you missed it this morning we have another Cyclone warning happening looks like it will be our first real one for the year
Just for interest check out how Brisbane BOM treats us northerners compared to Darwin BOM hope all future reports are timely from Brisbane -who are they looking after!!!
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 5 February 2005
A developing TROPICAL LOW 997 hPa is situated in the central Gulf of
Carpentaria.
At 1pm it was near latitude 13.5S, longitude 139.5E, about 325 km
east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 275 km west southwest of Weipa. The low is near
stationary.
The potential for development of a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Saturday: moderate,
Sunday: high,
Monday: high.
NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 6:42pm on Saturday the 5th of February 2005
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
between Weipa in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.
baldyhead
07-02-2005, 06:19 AM
The QLD BOM WILL NOT UPSET the powerful TOURIST INDUSTRY LOBBY."PERIOD"
IF the BOM was to give truthful IN DEPTH reports as the NT mob do then the airlines and tourist resorts in the CAIRNS and associated regions would be inundated with CANCELLATIONS!!!(LOSS OF MONEY!!!!)
A few years ago a siren used to be played on the local radio stations when there was an impending cyclone happening in this area, as well as announcer warnings as to where it was and about cleaning up & making ready for a possible blow.
This was stopped because in the 4 hours after the last siren & announcement was broadcast on 4CA radio (I cannot remember the actual year or cyclone) the CANCELLATIONS(LOSS OF MONEY!!!) bought the resorts and airlines to their GREEDY screaming knees.
There was HELL to pay over this, the CHAMBER of COMMERCE and the TOURIST LOBBY SCREAMED the loudest and then the media got on the band wagon with the consequence that there is now a BLANKET BAN on ANY cyclone watch or associated warnings UNTIL the CYCLONE is ALMOST UPON US!!!!
baldy
NQCairns
07-02-2005, 07:17 AM
Terrible Baldy, last year around this time we had that deep low just off the coast, we got bucketed with rain and some good winds, they were waiting for it to turn cyclonic at any time (so was I :o).
If it did and started moving it could have made escape impossible before they sounded the siren ::) 20min is not enough time to prepare people you have already lulled into a false state of trust.
Anyway we now have a cyclone! dont know it's name though. nq
baldyhead
07-02-2005, 07:35 AM
On the NT site " HARVEY"
SCOTTYGC
07-02-2005, 08:01 AM
" HARVEY"
what a soft name for a cyclone
i thought they were allways named after women
scotty
ps please keep it up your way
nonibbles
07-02-2005, 08:07 AM
I dunno, a few harvey wallbangers have knocked me down in the past. ;D
They alternate boy girl and follow the alphabet. #Certain to be some repeats I'm sure
Kerry
07-02-2005, 09:38 AM
Lots of people have forgotten exactly what cyclones are? and yes especially when it comes to the tourist industry, cyclone, what cyclone #::).
Unfortuneately it's going to take a good cyclone to bring back reality and the sooner the better.
It's been so long since the last decent cyclone in many areas that with all the devleopment over the past 20 years that the first blow will simply knock many for six and out.
Never know maybe they might then all go back to Victoria :D
Cheers, Kerry.
I can remember a few good ones ! Or bad ones:-(
there are going to be a lot of insurance payouts and unhappy people when the next real one hits a major center.
but no real need to worry cos Howard and Bush tell us global warming is just a fairy tale and tourism and growth will continue for ever and we will all live happily ever after in happy happy land. >:(
straddie
07-02-2005, 02:45 PM
Kerry you are absolutely spot on with everything you just said there. Some people aren't going to know what hit them when a good one comes through.
NQCairns
08-02-2005, 08:38 AM
Looks like it is getting nasty :o Hope it stays away,
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 12:00pm on Monday the 7th of February 2005
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Karumba
in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.
At 11:40am EST [11:10am CST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey, category 3, with
central pressure 973 hPa, was centred near latitude 15.8 south longitude 138.5
east, which is about 120km northwest of Mornington Island. The cyclone has
recently been moving towards the west southwest at 19 km/hr.
Tropical Cyclone Harvey is expected to continue moving towards the coast and
intensify. Gales are expected on Mornington Island, and to develop about other
coastal and island communities between Karumba and Port McArthur later in the
day.
Residents of Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm
tide as the cyclone approaches the island. The sea is likely to rise steadily up
to a level significantly above the normal tide with strong currents and flooding
of low lying areas extending some way inland. Along the exposed northwest coast,
damaging waves will also contribute to the flooding. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible.
Dangerous storm tides are also expected elsewhere around the eastern and
southern Gulf coastline, particularly between Burketown and Karumba.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE, Category 3, for 11:40am EST / 11:10am CST
Central Pressure : 973 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.8 degrees south
longitude 138.5 degrees east
about 120 kilometres northwest of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the west southwest at 19 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 60 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 20 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour, intensifying.
People between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 1 pm EST [12:30 pm CST]
If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from
your local government or local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued at 1 pm EST [12:30 pm CST]
NQCairns
08-02-2005, 09:04 AM
Up to 190kph now :o
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 12:54pm on Monday the 7th of February 2005
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Karumba
in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.
At 12:40 pm EST [12:10 pm CST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey, category 3, with
central pressure 970 hPa, was centred near latitude 15.9 south longitude 138.4
east, which is about 110 km northwest of Mornington Island. The cyclone has
recently been moving towards the southwest at 15 km/hr.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey is expected to continue moving towards the coast
and intensify. Gales are expected on Mornington Island, and to develop about
other coastal and island communities between Karumba and Port McArthur later in
the day.
Residents of Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm
tide as the cyclone approaches the island. The sea is likely to rise steadily up
to a level significantly above the normal tide with strong currents and flooding
of low lying areas extending some way inland. Along the exposed northwest coast,
damaging waves will also contribute to the flooding. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible.
Dangerous storm tides are also expected elsewhere around the eastern and
southern Gulf coastline, particularly between Burketown and Karumba.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE, Category 3, for 12:40 pm EST / 12:10 pm CST
Central Pressure : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.9 degrees south
longitude 138.4 degrees east
about 110 kilometres northwest of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the southwest at 15 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 60 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 20 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 190 kilometres per hour, intensifying.
People between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST]
If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from
your local government or local State Emergency Service.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know some farmers in my area wouldn't care how many buildings the thing knocked over to fill some of their bone dry dams. Bring it on!
NQCairns
08-02-2005, 09:32 AM
Yeah I know Mick, it is a sad reflection of the society we now live in today.
Cat 3 is pretty severe, damn scary if in it's path, hope those within the predicted path are ready to move in a hurry if they can or have already fled.
One prediction has it moving S others have it going wsw hope it turns into a depression upon landfall predicted to hit land around 4pm.nq
SeaHunt
08-02-2005, 09:42 AM
You can get a real good look at its hole here ;D
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR362.loop.shtml#image
I was expecting to see some pink and red shades, if not at least some green. Rain isn't to heavy for a cat 3. Bet those winds are making up for it.
NQCairns
08-02-2005, 11:18 AM
Hope this works,
Here is an intersting prediction:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1605.gif
NQCairns
08-02-2005, 01:35 PM
Winds are up to 220kph, must be nudging a cat 4 #:o :o. The BOM now say it will go SE toward townsville and below hopefully as a big rainy cloud. No matter where it goes there will be lives lost in the early stages :'( .
When Joy hit up here, I have been told there were 3000 body bags waiting at Sydney airport to deal with the aftermath. nq
Kerry
08-02-2005, 03:25 PM
When Joy hit up here, I have been told there were 3000 body bags waiting at Sydney airport to deal with the aftermath. nq
Now I think we're getting a little bit carried away ::) sounds something like a sensationalistic seeking journo would write :P. Lets keep things a little rational.
Cheers, Kerry.
devocean
08-02-2005, 04:08 PM
Bring on the rain. Need a decent flood to wash the sand out of the creeks. Im sick of moving around in 2 foot of water.
NQCairns
08-02-2005, 05:25 PM
Kerry wrote:
Now I think we're getting a little bit carried away sounds something like a sensationalistic seeking journo would write . Lets keep things a little rational.
Was from a friend of the family who was "in the know" back then, think about it if there was a major aftermath what rescue team wouldnt carry enough into the region?
What gov employee would they find on the ground to fill out the requistion cross every t and phone 3 superiors for their verbal ok then chase up the padlock keys for the body bags that 'were there yesterday';D ;D
Why sydney and not Brisbane I dont know? Will have to ask.
Today if we got well threatened like I understand Joy did then I guess 6000+ might be planned for the relief/rescue whatever fly in.
Kerry if you like sometime check out what the estimated the death toll would have been in Townsville if the last large storm surge had hit near high tide and not as luck would have it at near low tide, 3000 may not have been enough just for the surge, forget the cyclone.
One thing I have learnt in the last few weeks researching cyclones FNQ style is that everyone is completly on their own, do not expect any good help or decent shelter to be offered until it is all but only raining. nq
Harvey is woosy boy! Hit land and has all but died! It is now a catergory 1 and weakening. Go home harvey, ya nancy! Seems the drought will continue for another year. Sorry farmers in central and west QLD, I did a rain dance for ya's.
Jack_Lives_Here
09-02-2005, 02:49 AM
With a bit of luck it will still come down through the middle and drag some of the wet stuff with it - it all helps. [smiley=2thumbsup.gif]
Kerry
09-02-2005, 04:03 AM
Nq, Mr Fact and Mr Hearsay live on different sides of the planet and have obviosuly never met.
Way too many tsunami nightmares, Nq, way too many TV news repeats.
.... if you like sometime check out what the estimated the death toll would have been in Townsville if the last large storm surge had hit near high tide and not as luck would have it at near low tide....
"Estimated death toll" ay come on ::) IF IF IF IF IF What
Cheers, Kerry.
NQCairns
09-02-2005, 06:26 AM
::) please educate me Kerry ;D cheers nq
Kerry
09-02-2005, 07:02 AM
NO time to explain :o off to finish the ark ;D
Really Nq you are getting quite sensational. How many cyclones have you been through?
Cheers, Kerry.
NQCairns
09-02-2005, 07:37 AM
With all due respect if you would like to stick around for a storm surge 3m above HAT and cat 3 be my guest any where any time, it's not of interest or up to me to try and change your mind.
Kerry it is not the number of cyclones it is the wind speed and mm of mercury that makes the difference. I personally have been through heaps of cat 1/borderline cat 2 storms (around 3 a year usually) and one dying cat 1 cyclone, heaps of trees down roofs lost and only if real unlucky lives lost.
Upon researching this on the net (studys re cyclone and surge threats related to region) my family will be hitting the road (if possible) as soon as it reaches the middle of the cat 2 slot speed and it's predicted path is toward us (thought I had better add that last bit ;))
Me no hero or safe sayer where family is concerned even if I would love to stick around for the experience myself. nq
Kerry
09-02-2005, 07:50 AM
Nq, out of curiousity, how long have to lived up north?
Cheers, Kerry.
devocean
09-02-2005, 07:57 AM
Kerry according to research if a cyclone was to hit cairns with a very ;arge storm surge over three quaters of cairns would be lost to floods. Therefore there is always the strong possibility of large amounts of deaths in cyclones especially considering storm surge and the fact that we havnt had a decent cyclone for so long so noone knows how the buildings and infrastructure will hold up. Kerry have you ever seen a storm surge?
nulla
09-02-2005, 07:57 AM
nqcairns
Funny you should nominate 3,000 as the number of body bags. I knew a bloke in the SES and he quoted the same number to me years ago. It was to do with planning for a major cyclone to hit Cairns on a high tide. I think it was the surge that they were worried about - Have you checked on the size of the surge that went through Princess Charlette Bay in the 1800's - from memory it was 10m
I have been through a cat 3 cyclone - scary enough but there was little structural damage to houses etc. I would be really worried by a cat 5 (Tracy type strength)
Nulla
NQCairns
09-02-2005, 10:12 AM
Kerry, long enough now that these bloody beautyfull winters ALMOST make up for the long sweaty summers :D
Devocean, there is a good in depth study done on storm surge/wind risk to all cairns suburbs a few years ago through the uni here in conjunction with the Cairns city council (probably the one you refer to), my suburb ranked not too well overall.
After reading it I understood why there are no safe concrete commercial/gov buildings offered in cairns to sit out a cyclone like they do in the US for some of their storms.
Nulla, that surge you speak of was actually just under 15m :o, completly blows the mind how it could even be possible ???. A one in a thousand year event hopefully.
nq
Kerry
09-02-2005, 12:22 PM
....long enough now that these bloody beautyfull winters ALMOST make up for the long sweaty summers....
;) so a while but not quite long enough ;)
As far as storm surges go just about every settlement on the coast be they big cities, large towns or small towns have had surge studies down and plans available, like as if Cairns is the only place that might ever get hit with a surge.
Lets face it the last time a cyclone really washed out a place in Qld was Brisbane, 1974 apart from a bit of mud in Townsville a few years ago.
After the Tsunami there certainly appears to be a lot of paranoia getting around.
This lifestyle about living on the beach and much thanks must go to the developers who have cashed in on mexicans as well as the real estate agents who when push comes to shove there's going to be some yelling but unless people are blindfolded when they do these things then really they will have to wear the good with the bad.
So many people have simply never seen or been through a cyclone and one can be quite old to fall into this category. But for something different I can highly recommend it ;)
I do believe in this day and age all things have to be put in proper perpective, paranoia will start an uncontrollable ramble.
Perhaps the long period since any real cyclone has lulled everybody into a false sense of security. perhaps we should have had a few along the way just to remind mexicans it's not all roses.
Cheers, Kerry.
I live near Bowen. What's a storm? Is that where rain comes from? Is it called rain? Hope I pronounced it right.
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