A Question for global warming theorists

[nonibbles]

I've been pondering this for a while but if true would shed further doubt on the global warming argument (well at least the causes of it)
1) it is common knowledge that the earth's axis moves slightly and continuously over time (hence, meridian adjustment on charts and, I suspect the slow migration of the magnetic poles)
2) measurements of weather data are taken at constant positions on the globe
3) with the axis gradually moving, these fixed positions either move closer or further away from the sun at each revolution depending on their position relative to the centre of this rotational axis.
4) thus, temperatures to the north of the central axis would gradually decline and temperatures to the south would gradually increase if the northern portion of the globe tilted further from the sun
5) the earth's orbit is also moving closer to the sun
6) the polar caps are always reshaping due to their exposure to higher or lower temperatures and as we are south and therefore closer to the sun on our current axis we worry about antarctic ice melting etc.
I believe that if the temperature reading positions were moved to remain in constant relative position to the earth's axis at any given time then the data that these theories are based upon would not seem so dramatic and alrmist theories would not be so predominant.
The belief that we can do something about it or that we are responsible for it is irrelevant. #In several million years the earth will be no more due to the sun's gravity and when the sun has burnt up all its fuel... well #:o
Let's enjoy what we have while we have it instead of wasting time money and energy on useless pursuits that make some feel good under the premise that "at least we're doing something" whilst at the same time using it #as an excuse to over regulate and diminish the lifestyles of others.
Could this be the BIG FLAW in the GW argument? That's my rant for now ;)

[tideline_two]

he's a thought.... the global warming is supposed to melt the ice caps... melting is COOLING process.
the warmer air will allow more water vapor to suspend in the atmosphere.
more clouds equals less sunlight reaching the earth which should equal lower tempertures.

i actually heard a scientist say that global warming would cause a new ice age!
apparently the global currents are energised by the difference between the density of the seawater at the equators vs the polar regions. they reported that the melting of the ice caps wouldput so much freshwater into the ocean that the great global currents (ie. the gulfstream in the alantic) would actually stop. no gulfstream europe is 10's of degrees colder. glaciers start forming once again..all the suspended water vapor adds more snow............ICE AGE !!!!!!!!!

for every action there is a equal and opposite reaction?

[Gazza]

You(s) are both right of course ;D

Still reckon a big Megawati airconditioner(split system) with the cool bit pointing at the illegal fishers in Antartica ,and the hot bit , say PNG ???......who'd notice!!!!! ;D

Still don't understand why Eskimos have fires in their homes ,couldn't they use a more efficient microwave ???
They were born in those temperatures ,after all :P

[mini696]

Moving the guages would create more problems than it solves, also the distances they would need to be moved are so small there wouldn't be any diff in temp.

Just say the current one is on top of a hill. The earth's axis moves (for arguments sake say 10m). Now what happens if this 10m move now places the guage on the shaded side of the hill?

Just not practical.


As for the Global Warming.... I am a disbeliever. There are too many assumptions made in the theories to make me believe. I think any set of data can be manipulated to proove a point.

[SeaHunt]

The earth is warming up , and it has been since the last ice age, some would have us believe that it is warmer up faster than it should. Not sure what difference it makes if the polar ice caps melt in half the time they would have naturally, end result is the same and will bring on the next ice age. I think everyone needs to calm down , the poles have been free of ice before and they will again, there have been ice ages where the polar ice caps reached almost down to the tropics and there will again.
Who cares, we will all be dead before either happens, and life (inc. our decendants) will adapt or die just like it always has.

[devocean]

All part of evolution I guess climate change is not new, loss of environemt is not new (the great barrier reef has not always been) I think scientists are a bit afraid at the rate which it is occurring that is all.

[mini696]

[smiley=end.gif]

[Girella]

Cut to the chase if there is no such thing as global warming.........

Let's really get stuck into our fossil fuels and become a forty a day planet !!! [smiley=alien.gif]

[philip_thomson]

global warming hah hah hah what a joke ;D

if you looked at the average temperature over the past 2000 years and drew a line from then to now. the 2000 year change would be very close to zilch.

yes the temperatures go up and down but that is just a part of life.

[PinHead]

I hope it is warming up (or that people perceive it to be)..it is fantastic for business

[Render]

Crustal Displacement

[CHRIS_aka_GWH]

gentleman (& Render #;)),

if you wish me to give a damn .....

how does this effect the BEER or the MACKERAL?

chris

[Dug]

The correct term is "Global climate change" there is always climate change it is just that it is now changing far more rapidly than it has ever before.

We do not know what effect these rapid changes will cause because there has never been changes like them.

All we do know is putting our hands over our ears and yelling "EVERYTHING IS ALRIGHT LA LA LA" is not a scientific response to the problems.

If you are supported to the tune of Billions of dollars by people with a huge investment in fossil fuel then you will probably say don't worry everything is OK.

Just watching Quantum on ABC TV it looks like they have found microbial life on Mars.

Good news! if thing get bad here something will still survive, #Microbes like Bush and Howard should be OK #;D

[Dug]

PS funny how we are suffering the worst drought on record at the moment and have freak weather events occurring with increasing regularity :-/

[nonibbles]

It cycles, I drive

[dasher]

Forget the fossil fuel, just stop cows farting. ;D

[PinHead]

PS funny how we are suffering the worst drought on record at the moment and have freak weather events occurring with increasing regularity :-/

What freak weather events...the storm and cyclone season has been very quiet this year..Brisbane temps have predominantly been below average.

[PinHead]

The correct term is "Global climate change" there is always climate change it is just that it is now changing far more rapidly than it has ever before.

We do not know what effect these rapid changes will cause because there has never been changes like them.

#;D

I love the way these scientists state that things are happening faster or slower than before..how the hell would they know..records have only been kept for a couple of centuries out of millions of years..they can only guess as can all of us.

[3Vs]

Read " A Short History of Nearly Everything " by Bill Bryson - particularly the bit about the long term carbon cycle and the extremes of previous climate change.

[tideline_two]

well boil it down for us. i seem to have lost my copy.

[Dug]

drilling core sampling from coral reefs and ice caps give an accurate record for millions of years. the information is out there.

Yes the cyclone season has been very quiet for many years now, ask any grazier or farmer waiting for cyclonic rain depressions to fill their dams and flush out western rivers.

It should only worry people who care about kids and the next generation though. We should be OK in our lifetimes. Except for the youngsters on this site

Damm it they can sort out our problems after we are dead.

[3Vs]

No Nibbles.

The answer to the question - to quote Wendell Sailor is "Yes and No".

- Magnetic poles and the rotational axis are different things, although related.
- Mans' contribution to atmospheric carbon is still vastly exceeded by natures own output #- volcanoes etc, but our input is increasing.
-Atmospheric carbon is reycled by the earth - plants, sealife etc. The White Cliffs of Dover are an example of an immense amount of carbon recycled from the atmosphere by moving through the oceans to sealife to sea floor to rock formation.
- Changes in the Earths' climate probably led to the rise of modern man anyway so you can't have it both ways. Changes to the crust like the formation of the Himilayas and the rise of the Istmus of Panama probably dried Africa out and led the bipedal primates evolving.
- The Sun is cycical - its' output of heat goes up and down.
- Antartica has probably spent more time as rainforest than icecap so far.
- One good volcanic eruption, although releasing a lot of carbon, can cool the Earth considerably - see Krakatoa 1883 (Yellowstone, a supervolcano, is due).
- The albedo of the Earths suface affects the amount of heat retention, less white ice / snow, more retained heat - but a cold winter with lots of snow that doesn't melt can swing things the other way.
- Mans' time on Earth so far is miniscule in the scheme of things - and we are currently here due the conditions allowing it to be so.
- Core sampling gives us indications of previous conditions but accurate data relating to rates of change and global overviews is only based on supposition. When we are talking about billions of years a couple of thousand either way gets pretty hard to nail down.

Change is about the only thing that is certain.

Cheers

[3Vs]

P.S. on the Sun's lifespan.
The Sun will continue as a stable star for at least as long as its supply of hydrogen lasts. (Hydrogen nuclei are fused together to form helium in its core, with energy given off).

This is predicted to be for the next 4-5 billion years. By the end of that time, the Sun will begin to fuse helium, and as a result, expand in diameter to perhaps 300 times its present size.

After it burns out its helium, it will begin to reduce in size, then cool. That process will probably take another 5-8 billion years.

It is probably safe to say that the Sun can support life on Earth fairly well for at least another 3 billion years, possibly more.

[nonibbles]

I should've amassed a lot of welfare payments by then as I peer out of my bubble in cryogenically induced suspended animation just hoping someone else has survived long enough to let me out or at least pay me the welfare.

[gcbfc]

Suggest anyone who is interested in Climate Change have a read of Michael Crichtons new book called 'STATE OF FEAR'.

A lot of fiction (to make the story fun) based on a lot of FACT in regards to climate data.

Has me rethinking some of the guff I hear about the KYOTO agreement and carbon dioxide emissions etc.

An interesting read.

Cheers

Wayne

[DICER]

any warming here is good, as it's -4C, and it has been snowing. Then again I live ~5 metres below sea level!!!

I'm a scientist but. Fertilize the oceans I say. Go out and feed +pish the fish. It (the ocean) needs iron, to sink all that carbon dioxide. Green algae+iron+CO2 = excess fish food which locks the carbon up. That's because iron is the limiting factor.

Something needs to be done about farts though (methane). Carbon budgets don't trade in that stuff yet. Perhaps that's why the Americians are afraid of the Kyoto protocol?

Seriously though, we don't know enough about long term (10000) year fluctuations in temperature and how this is linked to sun cycle.

BTW 3Vs (beaker) nicely said.

DICER

[Dug]

Herring + Gurkin + diced onion..... and you are worried about Farts causing global warming? :P

[dasher]

well boil it down for us. i seem to have lost my copy.

Probably on the windowsill in the toilet. ??? ;) ;D

[Borumba_boy]

well heres an interesting point
global warming is natural the earth has been warming up since the last iceage and its completely natural this means it was getting hotter and hotter before humans were even here

[Dug]

well heres an interesting point
global warming is natural the earth has been warming up since the last iceage and its completely natural this means it was getting hotter and hotter before humans were even here


It's the speed that it is doing it. it is currently happening 4,000 times faster the predicted natural rate for a global climate change event.

[Dug]

From America :-X

[nonibbles]

So basically, mother earth is just giving herself a detox?

[Jeremy87]

Yes it is true the climate has been hotter and colder than it is at the moment, we also don't know if we are causing climate change, but if we are I would feel pretty dam guilty knowing that my actions had contributed to a major climate shift that could possible claim the lives or livelyhoods of millions or people, cause economic collapse in several countries and drive several species to extinction. But then thats just me. We talk about sustainable fishing for future generations alot on this website and yet some people here are willing to ignore possible warning signs of something that could affect everyone. What could we loose from treating the issue seriously. We'd address the replacement of the worlds diminishing fossil fuel supply and clean up the air in high population density cities for starters.

[Dug]

hopefully the Asian bird flu or a transgenic virus like it will take out 1/4 of the worlds population and we will have some breathing space for a while. [smiley=sick2.gif]

[Gazza]

Yes it is true the climate has been hotter and colder than it is at the moment, we also don't know if we are causing climate change,

but if we are I would feel pretty dam guilty knowing that my actions had contributed to a major climate shift that could possible claim the lives or livelyhoods of millions or people, cause economic collapse in several countries and drive several species to extinction. But then thats just me. #

We talk about sustainable fishing for future generations alot on this website and yet some people here are willing to ignore possible warning signs of something that could affect everyone. #What could we loose from treating the issue seriously. #We'd address the replacement of the worlds diminishing fossil fuel supply and clean up the air in high population density cities for starters. #

Mate ,so releasing fish ,and not being allowed to fish in many areas, would fix it ???

Be simplier to ban cars :-X ,and put up a few Atomic power stations ;) ,wouldn't it ???

[PinHead]

hopefully the Asian bird flu or a transgenic virus like it will take out 1/4 of the worlds population and we will have some breathing space for a while. [smiley=sick2.gif]


Dug, Are you volunteering 1/4 of your family to leave..I am damn sure I am not...but then again..some of us do not believe in the global warming story nor the hole in the ozone layer one also.

[Big_unit]

Ive got headache, tomorrow I am going to fish and forget I ever read this thread. Stop stressing lads.

Remember the 3 F's = fish, fornicate & feed.

As long as I can do that then I am happy. I am a simple fella.

Cheers
James.

[Randall_Bryett]

I liked this frog in hotwater video!

http://www.big-boys.com/articles/makesyouthink.html

[Gazza]

Hi Randall, just goes to "prove"
Crabs are a lot smarta than frogs!!
;D

[Dug]

Dug, Are you volunteering 1/4 of your family to leave..I am damn sure I am not...but then again..some of us do not believe in the global warming story nor the hole in the ozone layer one also.

No i'm not volunteering that is one thing a stint in the forces taught me, Never volunteer for anything ;D

If and when it happens it will be a doosy though trust me on that one.

[Boxhead]

Well, all this positive chat about the global warming being a heap of shit has just made me decide to go and burn those 1/2 dozen old tyres down the back shed instead of paying $7 at the tip....... Might buy some new lures instead.... Cheers

[DICER]

Dug, we farm real wind in Holland. Also herring in Northern Europe are one of the only sustainable fish. Furthermore take lamb or beef versus the herring - have you ever seen the fish fart like a cow? Now at the rate I'm sinking them, it has to be healthy for the environment.

Brodje harring (bread roll, raw herring, gurken and onion - €1.70) or fresh raw herring (€1.20)

DICER