Cyclone heads up. SH&T!!

[NQCairns]

OK, Just incase you do-not know! there is one mother of a cyclone of shore of Cooktown.
This one is a beauty and it is forcast to cross in FNQ by most of the models not just BOM, I read that if this girl crosses cooktown, Cairns will still get cat 2 winds, so get ready if you are anywhere inbetween cooktown and ingham because we are all target practice ATM depending on where it does cross. This one will be cat 5 before noon tues :o :o :o (now cat 4)and has none of the associated wind sheer and other phenomena(sp) that normally rips big ones apart - near perfect Cyclone!!
Guys and girls get ready to move - this is not a run of the mill.

There is a Slight chance it will go around the Cape, but only slight.
To say it once more this one is a the real deal, if you live up here get all those things done you always planned to do when a cyclone was coming, even get ready to move if you live in Cairns
Good luck all, hope it fizzes!!
Bom needs a real hard kick up the bum!! i have been getting ready all day, car and boat is almost packed, house is ready. High tides this week!!
good luck, nq

[Daintreeboy]

ha ha scott, beat you to it mate, by one minute.
Hope we all make it, and our houses are here when we get back.
Cheers, Mark.

[Moffy]

absolutely gives me the sh*ts how little information they release about these things nowadays - just so as not to scare the tourists away - this bugger is going to hit hard when it hits - most people at my work today weren't even aware of it other than - oh yeah there's a cyclone out there somewhere isn't there.

given the new moon (big tides) and the size of this one - there's going to be a lot of damage done that may have been preventable with a bit more detail in the warnings.

Daintree Boy - any room left in the shed out at G'Town?

[NQCairns]

Yeah Mark best of luck to you and your family. I had been writing it on and of for around an hour, cyclones sure make a person busy!!! We are going to Mount Surprise for our surprise! camping trip if it looks like getting rough. cheers nq

[nonibbles]

Good luck guys, I'm betting somewhere between cairns and innisfail but I'd much rather fiji! Best part of tommorrow gunna be strapping down boat and ferreting around the place. We're all getting a bit of this one. Just hope the it crosses at low tide and that my wife is safe when it does (cruise in area)

[subzero]

Looks pretty nasty, all the best fellas

[Volvo]

Best of luck fella's and hope everyone stays safe..
Cheers

[Dug]

Keep your heads down!

[Jay_S]

Hope it fizzes out for everyone up there :o
What can we say... besides fingers are crossed for you all.

Cheers Col

[Kerry]

Something one must come to expect when living in this part of the world. Cyclones might not be good but unfortuneatley we need them and haven't had any for quite some time, which makes some panic even more, but don't panic Nq central pressure only 930 hPa [smiley=mean.gif] when it drops to 929 kPa then panic.

930 kPa ? that's pretty low for now

Cheers, Kerry.

[Jay_S]

Yeh don't panic .....but be prepared and if it happens it mightn't hurt so much ;)

Cheers Col

ps need them like a hole in the head in my opinion

[blaze]

Hi to all in Nq
keep it tied down and be safe and we will see ya on the other side.
cheers
blaze

[Kerry]

Might not need the cyclone but certainly the rains and the floods been a long time but before the rains and the floods comes the crap.

Nq, once it can be seen on radar and the waliers start then ya know it's just around the corner :-X just stay away from those rivers and creeks.

Cheers, Kerry.

[FOOCKCHUCKER]

it's looking real bad boys so hope all goes well and she stays out to sea and goes south east. all the boys with outside trips down our way will curse it but all us lads that also enjoy charging threw big barrels as much or if not more than flicking lures will be beaming out of there skin. stay safe as she is one of the worst i have followed and i hope for all our sakes ; safety and pleasure she heads away good luck lads foockchucker willing it south east of bris vegas

[subzero]

Thought this was interesting, the forecast has been issued as a pan pan.

IDQ20008
PAN PAN
1 UPDATED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0820 UTC 7 March 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
SEVERE Tropical Cyclone Ingrid central pressure 930 hectopascals centred at
070700UTC near 14.3 south 148.5 east. Recent movement west-southwest at 4 knots.
Position good. Ingrid is expected to move slowly west over the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80nm of the centre of the cyclone.

FORECAST
Expect clockwise winds 30/40 knots, increasing to 40/50 knots within 40 nm of
the centre, and to 95 knots near the centre. Winds expected to increase to 120
knots near the centre by 080600UTC.

Very high seas, reaching phenomenal within 30 nm of the centre. Moderate to
heavy swells developing.

Forecast position 071800UTC 14.2S 148.1E. Central pressure 920 hPa.
Forecast position 080600UTC 14.1S 147.7E. Central pressure 910 hPa.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[Kerry]

This 930 hPa is interesting. Tracey got to 950 and the 2 cyclones in 1918 are supposedly some of the lowest pressures recorded in cyclones on our coast. The one that hit Mackay was 933kPa and the Innisfail one a few weeks latter was recorded at 926hPa

Cheers, Kerry.

Lloyd, that forecast pressure of 910 gets even more interesting.

[NQCairns]

Thanks Fella's for thinking of us up here! this one is a beaut, it is now tipped to land more like halfway between cairns/cooktown! so it is working away south over time - townsville better look out if it leaves us alone -It wont sit stationary forever and there is nothing to stop this one!
This one a bad bastard for sure. dont think QLD has seen the likes of this one in near 100years.

[NQCairns]

Kerry it has been dropping like a stone!! far from a normal cyclone!

[cooky]

NQ Cairns - were you a Scout? you sound very prepared - good on you.

I didn't know anything about this until one of my staff mentioned it at around lunchtime today.

I guess I'll need to do some work around the yard if it gets closer.

I'm in Townsville - we did notice the colour of the sky today was a bit weird -

[Jay_S]

Hope the big high down south can push it away for you guys and my sister who lives up there :P

[Dr_Dan]

Check out the formation of that bugger. Look at the eye on it. Lots of people i've been talking to in Tville are really complacent. Scary. This is going to be one big bastard if it hits. Fingers crossed for all up there, hopefully will head away. But they way it's looking, really is a worry.

[Dr_Dan]

FROM BOM

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:53pm on Monday the 7th of March 2005

A Tropical Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between
Port Douglas and Lockhart River.

At 10pm Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid, category 4, with central pressure 935
hPa, was centred near latitude 14.3 south longitude 148.4 east, which is 365
kilometres east northeast of Cooktown. Ingrid is currently drifting slowly west
at 6 km/h.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is expected to continue moving slowly towards the
north Queensland coast over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to increase
along the north Queensland coast, and gales are expected to develop between Port
Douglas and Lockhart River during Wednesday.

[NQCairns]

Cooky I was a sea scout -true ;D I have been watching this one for two days, it was apparent sunday arvo we would need to take solid notice. I know nothing about weather, but get my info from the good weather nerds of the net! Compared to BOM they are a class act!

[nonibbles]

Big problem in TSV (not sure of rest of NQ) is many southerners migrating north & have never seen anything greater than a cat2 even get a mention and then fizzle out. Many seem to believe that a sudden thunder/hail storm that we often see on the news is more of a worry, after all we can sit and watch cyclones develop.
I for one am quite worried having been in NQ since 83 and seen other places get a hit is a worry. My biggest worry in cyclones is the DIY renovators and the seemingly endless appendages (flimsily attached signage - read as sails) that crop up around all these new commercial buildings. We used to have very strict building regulations and they were well abided but now, I think because of the strictness, and having to shell out dollars left right and centre for approvals and inspections, people find ways to work around the rules until it smacks them or someone close in the face. You can be very prepared and still lose everything because someone 100 yards down the road didn't give a hoot and thought they knew everything. I have a suitcase in the workshop that has my cyclone kit in it. I'll check the retrieval gear, the tarps and ropes, batteries, gas & fuel stores tommorrow morning. Where's yours?

[cooky]

I'm thinking about where I can take the family camping if it gets closer. I'll have to drag the boat behind. Maybe the Whitsundays are the go at this time of year

[nonibbles]

Make sure you've got enough fuel or cyclone Kerry'll be lettin ya know about it #;) ;D

[Mad_Barry]

There's always a bright side, a good cyclone will blow a few fresh snags into the rivers # ;D


You Cairns boys be careful, and take care of yourselves and families #:) #

[nonibbles]

Just spoke to Janny (wife) they are no longer pulling into Port Douglas or Cairns but have turned south. Next stop Whitsundays. People on board have only been told that there is a severe cyclone up north, they don't understand how severe nobody has talked of catagories yet.
The main thing is we are feeling a whole lot better now.
All you guys further up North take care, sincerely thinking of all of you.
Paul

[gunna]

Just checked the latest. It sure looks nasty.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Ingrid, Category 5, for 7:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 930 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 13.9 degrees south
longitude 147.7 degrees east
about 320 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown.
Recent Movement : towards the west northwest at 8 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 90 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 35 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour.

People between Lockhart River and Port Douglas should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially protecting boats and property using available
daylight hours.
People between Port Douglas and Cairns should consider action they will need to
take if the cyclone threat increases and listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am EST.

[nonibbles]

Here's the next report:

Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 5
Situation At: 10AM EST Tuesday 8 March 2005
Warning Area: Lockhart River to Port Douglas
Watch Area: Port Douglas to Innisfail
Location: 13.9S 147.4E
Recent Movement: W at 8 km/h
Remarks: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid continues to move west and poses a serious threat
to the far north Queensland coast. Ingrid has a very destructive core with wind
gusts to 290 km/hr.

Gales are expected to develop between Lockhart River and Port Douglas during
Wednesday morning with destructive winds possible later in the day.

People between Lockhart River and Port Douglas should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially protecting boats and property using available
daylight hours.

People between Port Douglas and Innisfail should consider action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 2pm EST.


Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 2pm EST Tuesday 8 March.

[nonibbles]

here's the track

[gunna]

Is the coastline copping rain from this yet ??

[dasher]

Geez guys that is one bad mutha. Look after yourself and your families, hope all is well after this. Maybe a good time for a holiday in Hervey Bay, I have heaps of room. And I ain't joking.

[ken4159]

guys move inland, seen a cat.5 before not to be fu--ed with

Good luck

[Moffy]

[smiley=end.gif]
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

[bassintom]

guys,take care of yourselves.i'll put a word in with the man upstairs for ya....stay safe

[devocean]

Bring it on couple of days off work weather usually dies off couple of days before hand caught some great fish couple of days before a cyclone

[cooky]

decided to take this seriously so issued the following email to my staff just now:

Hi all

I'm not being a panic merchant, this email is aimed at Scott (IT) and Roberta (QA) - Risk Management. However I thought I'd send to everyone as a reminder to start thinking / preparing your family and home in the event that it does head south.

There is a huge and very dangerous cyclone up Cairns to Cooktown way at present.

We might have to look at IT back-up / protection options if this cyclone starts to move any further south. Talking to some people in the know last night - worst cyclone seen in over 100 years - has a chance of swinging further south towards us. Category 5 is extreme and combined with high tides this week - not good at all. Current winds of 290kph at centre.

This cyclone is so bad that I advised my wife that we wouldn't be hanging around if it gets close to Townsville - a quick holiday to Mt Isa or south may be in order.

Roberta - I know we have Risk Management procedures, however can you drag the Natural Disaster file out so we can review please. Better to be safe than sorry.

Little things like our Business Interruption insurance need to be checked. Not sure how long Cyclone Tracey knocked power/ phone / water out for, but I'm guessing we'd need to consider surviving 2 weeks or more without facilities to operate.

Scott - I would like to look at the ability to move the servers if required - that way if something does hit (with the proximity of our office to the coast) we might be able to operate in some capacity. Risk management could involve the packing or protection of all laptops and server - enabling us to set-up office effectively anywhere.

Anyway - thought it might be a good opportunity for us to update our risk management procedures.

This link shows current satellite imagery http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

And below - the path taken over last couple of days.

[isaac]

Its done a big left hander;

Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 4
Situation At: 7AM EST Wednesday 9 March 2005
Warning Area: Cape Grenville to Cooktown
Watch Area: Gilbert River Mouth to Weipa
Location: 13.6S 145.9E
Recent Movement: W at 7 km/h
Remarks: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid poses a serious threat to the far north Queensland coast with very destructive wind gusts to 280 km/hr near the centre.

Gales are expected to develop between Cape Grenville and Cooktown within the next few hours. Destructive winds are expected between Coen and Cape Flattery later in the day. The very destructive core of the cyclone is expected near the coast between Coen and Cape Melville early on Thursday.

Coastal residents between Coen and Cape Flattery are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast early Thursday. The sea is likely to rise steadily to a level significantly above the highest tides of the year with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should be prepared to evacuate if advised to do so.

Very heavy rain can be expected to develop on the coast and ranges north of Cooktown.

People in near coastal areas between Cape Grenville and Cooktown should have completed preparations and should be ready to take shelter.

People over inland areas across Cape York Peninsula to the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast should also consider actions they will need to take as the cyclone moves further towards them.


Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 11am EST Wednesday 9 March.

[NQCairns]

Cooky you might need those recommendations yet! There has been some talk of a new coral sea low forming in around a week with a more southerly path. Some models predicted Ingrid 5 or so days ago!
Isaac lovely to see the northern component in it's travels now! They say that the cyclones weakening is probably due to 'eyewall replacement' and is only temporarily a 4 soon to go back to 5 if the change completes before landfall. Possibly more huff and puff in her yet :-/
nq

[gunna]

You getting rain from it NQ ???

[NQCairns]

Gunna a couple of spots is all, bugger all wind also, just a nice slightly too windy to go boating sort of day!

[tideline_two]

yall hunker down and be safe. the carolinas here get more than our share of hurricanes , if your out of the way of the storm surge and the eye wall doesn't track right over ya it aint to bad. well relatively speaking anyways. hurrican hugo hit just south of me in 1989.(eye wall center about 50 miles south) cat 4 big momma ! we recieved some dammage here at my neigborhood (i live about 3/4 mile inland) had a storm surge of about 15 feet here. it moved and shifted things that you never would have thought possible. we had 2 cat 1 storms track right over the area this past summer/fall. nothing but rain and wind ... no big deal. cat 3-5 is awesome stuff.

[SeaHunt]

I think it will go over to the Gulf and build up again. 8)
And then go over and flatten Darwin again. ::)
Just a prediction. ;D