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rando
12-03-2005, 08:42 AM
Anyone know where she is??? Where is she heading???
Cheers
Rando

devocean
12-03-2005, 08:44 AM
I reckon she will reintensify in the gulf come back around Kowanyama way then turn into a rain dpression which will move down the coast

agnes_jill
12-03-2005, 08:48 AM
Rando
At this stage they are expecting her to go to the Northern Territory. Bom has cancelled watches in Qld and has transferred them to the N.T. Who knows??
Glad all you guys up there in FNQ are safe. She looked pretty nasty there for awhile.
Regards Sandi

Derek Bullock
12-03-2005, 09:27 AM
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Friday 11 March 2005

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities
between MILINGIMBI and GROOTE EYLANDT, including NHULUNBUY.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to CAPE DON. The CYCLONE WATCH between GROOTE EYLANDT and PORT ROPER has been cancelled.

At 9.30 am CST TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 2 was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 295 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy and 370 kilometres east
northeast of Alyangula, moving west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour towards
the coast. The cyclone is slowly intensifying.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour are expected
to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY early Saturday morning.

GALES with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and NHULUNBUY later this evening and extend towards MILINGIMBI
Saturday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE SHIELD and MILINGIMBI.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the northern TOP END.

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 10.00 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 139.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour slowly intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 2
. Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals

REPEATING: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID is expected to affect the coast near NHULUNBUY early Saturday morning.

The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 2 pm CST

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

megafish71
12-03-2005, 12:12 PM
Rando,
Ingred is heading for the NT. She will brush close to the coast near Gove, then will continue travelling west before turning west south west near the Tiwi Islands and brushing the coast again aroung Darwin, She will continue west south west reaching the Kimberly coast around thursday the 17/03.

Thats my thoughts, lets see how good of a weatherman I am.

Ron

megafish71
12-03-2005, 12:21 PM
Monday

megafish71
12-03-2005, 12:23 PM
Tuesday

megafish71
12-03-2005, 12:23 PM
Wednesday

Daintreeboy
12-03-2005, 01:03 PM
you forgot to mention the half twist in pike postion

Daintreeboy
12-03-2005, 04:02 PM
finally getting a bit of rain, mostly from the high though. How poor is the rain off this thing.
hehe Watch out Nhulunbuy
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR092.shtml

Daintreeboy
12-03-2005, 05:54 PM
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR093.shtml

see how the hot land mass makes more rain..coool

Daintreeboy
12-03-2005, 07:41 PM
later
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR093.shtml

Daintreeboy
12-03-2005, 07:47 PM
the eye has reformed, willy is huge and the low in the coral sea is starting to spiral
http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml

Daintreeboy
12-03-2005, 07:49 PM
cat 4 again, didn't take long
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt

Derek Bullock
13-03-2005, 06:06 AM
IDDP0002
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 48
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 9:00 am CST Saturday 12 March 2005

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between CAPE DON and CAPE SHIELD, including NHULUNBUY.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including the TIWI ISLANDS and
DARWIN.

At 8.30am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 4 was located about 55
kilometres northeast of ELCHO ISLAND and 105 kilometres west northwest of
NHULUNBUY, moving west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour are currently
affecting the coast near ELCHO ISLAND.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between CAPE SHIELD and MILINGIMBI, including NHULUNBUY, and will
extend along the north coast to CROKER ISLAND by tonight.

GALES may extend further west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN and the TIWI
ISLANDS, by Monday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between ELCHO
ISLAND and CAPE DON.

HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 8.30 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 136.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals

REPEATING: VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour are
currently affecting the coast near ELCHO ISLAND.

The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 10 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

max_power
13-03-2005, 06:22 AM
i'm waiting for the next low in the coral sea to form into another cyclone...

cheers

Drew

Derek Bullock
13-03-2005, 06:51 AM
Images of Ingrid, Willy and the new low in the coral sea.

http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml


Derek

megafish71
13-03-2005, 01:50 PM
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:09 pm CST Saturday 12 March 2005

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
DARWIN and ELCHO ISLAND, including the COBOURG PENINSULA, and now including
DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to DALY RIVER MOUTH.

The CYCLONE WARNING between NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND has been cancelled.

At 4pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID CATEGORY 5 was located off the north
coast about 55 kilometres north of MILINGIMBI and 165 kilometres east of
GOULBURN ISLAND, moving west at 20 kilometres per hour, parallel to the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop along the north coast between
MANINGRIDA and CAPE DON in about 12 hours. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID should cross the COBOURG PENINSULA coast in 12 to 24
hours and may pass near GOULBURN or CROKER ISLANDS before moving into the VAN
DIEMEN GULF.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the coast
between ELCHO ISLAND and MILINGIMBI, and will extend along the north coast
tonight to CROKER ISLAND by Sunday morning. GALES have eased between ELCHO
ISLAND and NHULUNBUY, however squally winds may be experienced.

GALES may extend west to the TIWI ISLANDS by Sunday evening, and southwest to
DARWIN by Sunday night and further west to DALY RIVER MOUTH by Monday afternoon.


DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MANINGRIDA and CAPE DON, including GOULBURN ISLAND and CROKER ISLAND. ABNORMALLY
HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the coast between ELCHO ISLAND and
MANINGRIDA.

HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northern TOP END.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID at 4 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 134.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
between POINT STUART and NHULUNBUY, including the COBOURG PENINSULA.

The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8 pm CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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nonibbles
14-03-2005, 04:48 AM
Name: INGRID
Severity Category: 5
Situation At: 7AM CST Sunday 13 March 2005
Warning Area: Daly River Mouth to Maningrida, including Darwin, the Tiwi Islands and Cobourg Peninsula
Watch Area: Port Keats to Daly River Mouth
Location: 11.3S 132.6E
Recent Movement: W at 15 km/h
Remarks: The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour, is currently affecting CROKER ISLAND and is expected to continue moving west and cross the COBOURG PENINSULA this morning before moving across the TIWI ISLANDS this evening.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the coast
between MANINGRIDA and CAPE DON, and will extend west to the TIWI ISLANDS later this morning, southwest to DARWIN by tonight, and further south to PORT KEATS by late Monday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between GOULBURN ISLAND and CAPE DON, including CROKER ISLAND.

HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises
in the northwest TOP END.


The next threat map will be issued at 11AM CST Sunday 13 March 2005.

philip_thomson
14-03-2005, 08:33 AM
:o what a cyclone :o
i think a lot of people were predicting that it would have intensified going across the Gulf. i guess if anywere can withstand a huge cyclone it has to be Darwin.

Kerry
14-03-2005, 08:55 AM
If Ingrid was in fact hitting 320km/hour last night then that puts it well into the super hurricane class. From records for the southern hemisphere going back to the early 1900's Zoe holds the highest intensity of 155 knots (287km/h) and that was 2002/2003.

BOM records back to 1907 put 3 cyclones in the 900hPa pressure minimum range and very few below 930kPa, Tilly-1971, Gwenda-1999 & Indigo-2003.

Cheers, Kerry.

nonibbles
14-03-2005, 09:20 AM
Good luck, to all of coastal NT. I'm sure you're well prepared by now.

megafish71
14-03-2005, 11:09 AM
Yeh, heres hoping that my family and friends are safe and well. Thankfully Ingrid apears to be weekening for the moment.

Highlander
14-03-2005, 03:18 PM
just off phone to my brother in Darwin, Melville and batherst isl are getting a caning and croker isl and coberg penisula copped full cat 5 eta for darwin about 11pm EST , good luck Darwin .

Burley_Boy
14-03-2005, 03:29 PM
Hope you Darwinites are taking cover, good luck guys looks like a rough night.

ken4159
14-03-2005, 04:31 PM
i'am praying for you lot, good luck

nonibbles
14-03-2005, 05:24 PM
It seems Darwin may get a lucky break yet:

Name: INGRID
Severity Category: 3
Situation At: 7PM CST Sunday 13 March 2005
Warning Area: Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart, including Dape Don, the Tiwi Islands and Darwin
Watch Area: Kalumburu to Daly River Mouth
Location: 11.4S 131.1E
Recent Movement: W at 15 km/h
Remarks: NOTE: all times on the map are in CST.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour, is currently crossing MELVILLE ISLAND, and is expected to continue moving west across the TIWI ISLANDS tonight.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced elsewhere on
the coast from CAPE DON to the TIWI ISLANDS and in the western VAN DIEMEN GULF. GALES will extend southwest to DARWIN this evening, and continue overnight. At this stage, it is expected that only the southern edge of INGRID will affect DARWIN.

GALES may extend further southwest to DALY RIVER MOUTH on Monday, and then further southwest to KALUMBURU by Tuesday evening, if the cyclone takes a southwest track into the Timor Sea.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING on the coasts of the TIWI ISLANDS.

HEAVY RAIN may cause localised flooding and significant river and stream rises in the northwest TOP END.


The next threat map will be issued at 11PM CST (9:30 PM WST) Sunday 13 March 2005.

iank
14-03-2005, 09:13 PM
11pm Darwin time, just went outside for a look, wind is blowing about 15-20 knts with gusts up to about 35 knts, has some squally showers mixed in with the wind. Looks like it is going to miss us here, :D kids are happy as shools have been closed tomorrow.
Ian