Reading the weather

[whitey73]

Has anyone got any ides on predicting the weather from the synoptic chart. I am in North Queensland and I realise that all areas are different. It would be good to be able to at least know on a weekday that maybe a trip outside may be on the cards for saturday or sunday.

[Owen]

I've tried to work it out [smiley=book2.gif]
go to
http://www.bom.gov.au/info/ftweather/
There's a bit of a tutorial there.

I'm still none the wiser though [smiley=dunce.gif]

[NeilD]

There are a lot of factors not shown in the synoptic charts that meteorologists use for there predictions, I did an advanced climate and meteorology course at uni many moons ago and at the end of it was so confused I just went back to looking at the general shapes and gradients on the charts.
Seabreeze does a better job than I could ever do.

Neil

[Panasonic]

isnt it funny how we come to rely on things
the BOM site give us information that they interpret and we then interpret from that.

I have read other topics and views on the weather and i think that we forget a couple of things

1. its a prediction sort of like a good guess (just remember Nostradamus and his robbie coltranes)

2. ontop of it being a "prediction" the BOM adds a 40% +/- factor


so here we have a guess thats 40% wrong too begin with, but its only a guess anyway.
add to that the uncertainty of fishing and you would think that we are all optimists to being with :)





big spaces between isobars= less wind
little spaces=more wind

[bidkev]

isnt it funny how we come to rely on things
the BOM site give us information that they interpret and we then interpret from that.

I have read other topics and views on the weather and i think that we forget a couple of things

1. #its a prediction sort of like a good guess (just remember Nostradamus and his robbie coltranes)

2. ontop of it being a "prediction" the BOM adds a 40% +/- factor


so here we have a guess thats 40% wrong too begin with, but its only a guess anyway.
add to that the uncertainty of fishing and you would think that we are all optimists to being with :)

big spaces between isobars= less wind
little spaces=more wind

Just gone through this on the other thread. I really don't think that bom adds 40% at all, they simply advise that *we* should allow for another 40%. Considering how many times I have heard this though, it may be me that's getting it wrong.

kev

Methods are many,
Principles are few.
Methods change often,
Principles never do.

[Panasonic]

Please Be Aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height


:)
good point Kingtin
so maybe its another guess ontop of the original prediction ;D

[ahjayem]

G'day Whitey, and all Ausfishers

I am not an expert on the weather, but here are some of my thoughts, observations.

When living on Palm Island for four years in the early eighties I was fortunate enough to buy a large boat, enabling me to get into offshore fishing. Without the internet, an old salt guided me to the t.v. weather for my long term fishing plans particularly in the April to September period of the year – the time when the south easterlies are more prevalent.

When planning a weekend on the water we would look at the ABC the 7:25 weather forecast on Wednesday evening. If there was any sort of a high pressure cell (over about 1028 hpa or higher) in the Great Australian Bight, it could be assumed that by the weekend, the high would have moved easterly to a position between the Aussie coast and New Zealand. The high would have then created a strong ridge up the east coast of Australia, which seemed to have the habit of forming somewhere south of the Queensland border, and which directed a strong south easterly wind flow of about twenty knots or better all of the way along Queensland’s eastern seaboard. This would put a hold on all plans to go out on the water especially if we were considering taking the family. If the high cell was deeper – 1032, 1036hpa or higher, then the winds would obviously be stronger eg 25 – 30 knots often accompanied by strong wind warnings.

Translating the above means that if there’s a significant high in the Bight, then don’t seriously consider fishing from the third day after such high has established, as their will be a very good chance of strong south easterlies to contend with.

With the advent of the internet and its wide acceptance as an information medium, I now use the “bom.gov.au” site, particularly the “the latest mean sea level pressure chart”, the “4-day forecast charts”, the southern hemisphere charts, the “gradient wind stream analysis chart”, satellite images, and the general forecast information for my location. From all of the information gleaned from these sources, the decision is made as to whether to go fishing or mow the lawn.

Something which I distinctly remember reading in the “Townsville Bulletin” during these early days of my offshore fishing activities, was a commentary by the then lighthouse keeper at Cape Cleveland (south of Townsville) from reference to information he had maintained about the weather, was “that we (the people of the Townsville region) were getting more wind – i.e. more windy days per year together with stronger winds being experienced during windy periods when compared to previous years’ information”. I believe that this statement is even more valid at present!

The same old salt also clued me up that if there’s a south westerly blowing in the morning, it will be followed by a calm afternoon and evening.

We need to realize that
1. The weather is very fickle.
2. The forecaster has a 50% chance of being correct all of the time. It
either rains or it doesn’t. There’s either a strong wind or a slight
breeze. It will be sunny or it will be cloudy or overcast.
3. We need to keep an eye on the weather. Be prepared for a change.
It could improve or worsen.
4. If in doubt – don’t go out.

I hope the above is of assistance to you.

Tight lines

RJM

[lunar_c]

big spaces between isobars= less wind
little spaces=more wind

Except the big spaces on the fourth day of the 4-day forecast are there to torment us.

[finding_time]

[quote author=Panasonic link=1139086212/0#3 date=1139104600]
big spaces between isobars= less wind
little spaces=more wind

Thats about all you need!

[seatime]

They must all collect their data from similar sources surely. The gathering of weather data is typically done by the national authorities in each country.
So, it must be the software they use for the modelling predictions. Maybe bom has an inbuilt safety margin in their computer modelling, I remember a nasty hail, thunderstorm they missed in Sydney in the late 90's. From memory the insurance co's canned them. And the S to H tradgedy.
They maybe erring on the side of caution too much and still smarting from previous errors. I'm only guessing here.

# here's another one to look at, see where the pelagics hang out

http://www.marine.csiro.au/~lband/web_point

regards

[seatime]

sorry, think that should have gone on the "inconsistent forecast" thread

[moreton]

The weather is a difficult subject. Weather is disturbances in the atmosphere. Imagine if the world was completly flat and equal distance from the sun, moon and every other disturbance. There would be no wind as high and low pressure systems would not exist. The barametric pressure would be always stable. There would be no need for the weatherman as the word weather would not be in the dictonary. Fishing and boating every day yee haa (in safety).
To my knowledge, the weather is very difficult to predict the lower and upper atmosphere have to be taken into account anong with air pressure, heat, cold and moisture and all the history they have to go on is a couple of hundred years. (what they do is take all the current readings or figures and match these with the same pattens in history, which is held in computers. - A good educated guess you may say and I think you are right - very hard when you think about it.
My money is on BOM as I believe they would be gathering all the information that the others are basing there "forecasts" on. I believe they have the runs on the board. (I do not work for them).
Cheers Moreton

[Feral]

Get to know your local environment

I am fairly well able to predict whats going to happen over the next few days based on cloud shape& height, the way the local birds behave, and past weather patterns. IE this time of year where I live, a wet day is often followed by a couple of breezy days with wind from the north east, high cloud with a herring bone affect in winter here usually means a cold change coming through, probably with westerly's. If the birds are nesting, it means we are probably due for wet month, which usually means south easterlies, and reduced fishing oportunites.



(Dont forget a good look at the weather each night on the box ;D goes a long way as well!)