Weather...........

[Lucky_Phill]

Posted 25th September by BoM.

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have generally cooled over the past fortnight, easing towards neutral values (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels. Given September is the time of year when El Niño events consolidate, this recent cooling is considered somewhat unusual, hence the risk of an El Niño event remains.

Despite the shift towards neutral conditions, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. When combined with the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, conditions continue to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with weekly values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past two months. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will most likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.

By this rational, we will not be expecting the floods or severe weather from the last two years over the summer months.

The next update will be about 9th October.

cheers LP

[finga]

Gees we could do with some rain though.

[Fishbait]

BOM briefed cabinet recently on this. The ministerial statement is located http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2012/9/24/cabinet-briefed-on-wet-season-weather-outlook

[Lucky_Phill]

Media Statements

Premier
The Honourable Campbell Newman

Monday, September 24, 2012

Cabinet briefed on wet season weather outlook

Queenslanders can expect a hot summer with severe thunderstorms but it is unlikely there will be the widespread flooding of recent years, the Bureau of Meteorology told State Cabinet this morning.

Premier Campbell Newman said Cabinet was briefed on what to expect for the coming wet season.

“The message from the Bureau of Meteorology is that Queenslanders should enjoy the tropical summer, but expect periods of severe weather,” Mr Newman said.

“At this stage, the Bureau is expecting it to be warmer than normal throughout spring and summer and the fire risk remains higher than normal, particularly in the southern inland.

“While floods are a part of the Queensland wet season and we can expect typical periodic flood activity, the Bureau’s outlook suggests widespread floods are less likely.
“The Bureau warns there is the possibility of cyclones forming but not all will cross the coast.

“Queenslanders should prepare for a typical cyclone season as it only takes one crossing the coast to cause danger.”

Mr Newman said it was important that Queenslanders prepared for the wet season and always kept an eye on the weather.

“Now is the time to clear gutters and downpipes, trim trees and overhanging branches and check your home for any defects that need attention,” he said.

Mr Newman said the Queensland Government was continuing to implement recommendations from the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry in preparation for the next wet season.

In addition, Cabinet will meet at the Emergency Services Complex in Kedron on Monday 29 October for briefings on Queensland’s disaster management arrangements.

“So many Queenslanders have experienced so much heartbreak at the hands of Mother Nature in recent years,” he said.

“While the early signs for this wet season are more positive, it is still early days and it is vital that we continue to make all the necessary preparations for when natural disasters inevitably strike Queensland again.”

Today’s briefing was an early indicative seasonal outlook only and the forecasts will be more accurate as we draw closer to the wet season.

[ENDS] 24 September 2012

Media Contact: Premier’s Office 07 3224 4500

[finga]

“At this stage, the Bureau is expecting it to be warmer than normal throughout spring and summer and the fire risk remains higher than normal, particularly in the southern inland.
Makes you wonder why Can-Do sacked 56% of the Rural Fire Brigade and even sent them redundancy letters and have the entire SE Qld region run, and organised, by 3 people in Beenleigh. That's 3 people organising and co-ordinating about 4,500 volunteers.

[Bruce Micheal]

Sounds like a "normal" Queensland summer:)

[SunnyCoastMark]

So - looks like we are going to get our worst flooding ever then......................::)

[-Chris-]

Whilst we may not see a weather setup like we have had recently that caused wide spread flooding it must be remembered that while it's dry in on the surface under the surface is still saturated and the dams are full. All it would take is a deep low/ex-tc or maybe a cat 1 or 2 storm to cross the coast between sunshine coast/gold coast and we could expect severe flooding once again. A cyclone has not crossed SEQ coastline in years but every year it's a possibility.

[mowerman]

"Sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region of the eastern equatorial Pacific are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. In recent weeks, they have cooled to well below the threshold of El Niño conditions. For the evolution of an El Niño that starts from La Niña conditions, that dip is unusual during the satellite era (since November 1981). See Figure 1. Actually, it’s unusual for any El Niño event over the past 30 years."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/24/tisdale-asks-hey-whered-the-el-nino-go/


Rod
.

[Horse]

All indications are for a dry Summer compared to the last two. I think Can't dos decision to hold back water at 100% in the dams is a sound one. The water can be dumped if it looks like a significant rain event is on the horizon

[Dignity]

Phil here I was thinking it was a lazy moon causing me grief but it urns out to be that Nina family again :P

[Lucky_Phill]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/7337e3c8340e5897e4793a8228e4472b.png

This is interesting and ties in perfectly with my fish catch rates / fishing effort ( days on water ) over my time.

1998 to 2001 is a prime example. Losta fishing went on the for me,

OH...... Red indicates La Nina.

[finga]

Isn't El Nina an indicator for sardines in Peru? Or was it sardines was an indicator for La Nina??
Well that's what they told me at uni.

Here is some information about what La Nina and El Nino do and why
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/climate/El_NinoPublic.pdf

[finga]

Gees we could do with some rain though.
Oi fuglee. Why didn't you like that post?
It's bloody dry and we could really use some rain.....