The Fishing Vote & Katter. What now?

[kc]

As expected a pretty good effort for first timer Katter's party "North of Rocky and West of the range". It has picked up 3 seats and may win a 4th and is also within touching distance of a whole number of seats. If it had picked up an additional 3% across a string of seats, and it was always his argument (which I agree with) that if the "Katter" name was on the ballot paper, an additional 4 or 5% was likely.....his party would end up as the official "opposition" in Qld. Not a bad first effort. Also good to see, as part of the natural transition, that Steve Todeshini, an ex The Fishing Party Qld executive member and past candidate for TFPQ is now (or should be on Tuesday) announced as the KAP member for Thuringowa. I hope Bob can maintain the momentum and emerge as a true third force, at least in Queensland and get a couple of Senators up across the country as an alternative to the green monster.

[chris69]

Yer Kc the green monster to a kicking from what i saw of the election,they have been planing things for a long time the fishing party has a bit of catching up to do,the shooters were awere of what they..the greens.. were up to over 10 years ago and getting them selves into a position to push there wicked was apon us it would be good to have a senator to push for our rights to hunt and gather.

[Mike Delisser]

I hope your right about Thuringowa KC, I was listening to the radio coverage on election night and every time Katter said they're were going well in Thuringowa, JP Lambrooke would ridicule him and claim the LNP was too far ahead to loose that seat. I use to fish a few bass comps with Steve when he was down here, he's a good bloke (but with an average taste in music).

[kc]

Hi Mike,

I would just about bet my house that Steve has won Thuringowa. I scrutineered on Saturday and watched the numbers close. The issue is the ECQ website and system is designed in such a way to only be able to calculate a 2 party preferred outcome between ALP and LNP. If you look on the ECQ website in Thuringowa you will note a 2pp outcome between ALP and LNP...in other words, they have already distributed KAP preferences (which I might add run about 50/50). What they should have done , but the system does not allow, is given KAP (Steve) outpolled ALP, they should have distributed ALP preferences (which I might add run 90% to KAP). About (from my observation) 25% of ALP voters filled in every box, so of the 6000 ALP votes, about 1500 will end up with KAP and Steve will win the seat. It is complicated and there is nothing sinister about it, just a system error, but KAP will win Thuringowa and possibley Hinchinbrook (where KAP got 7000 to LNP 8000 but with 4000 ALP votes to carve up, 1000ish of those will go to KAP so a line ball.

In mulgrave KAP is about 200 behind LNP on primary, but, after the Greens carve up, if they get their nose in front of LNP, then all the LNP votes (about 1500 of the 6000 cast) will go to KAP and he will win the seat, ahead of Pitt of ALP.

Sh!t our system is complicated.

The thing to remember. Every ALP voter hates LNP so if they fill in every box it is always LNP 4th. Every LNP voter hates ALP, so same deal, ALP 4th. Given the Greens are already gone, almost every vote, from both sides, ends up with Katter as a "2" or "3" so KAP gets almost all the preferences from both sides.

Any result in which KAP comes 2nd, outpolling ALP or LNP. it is a strong chance of winning. Now look at all the seats it went within a few hundred votes of coming second and you will realise how close it came to winning a heap of seats, including Whitsunday. This was a close run election and the Katter brand (or not) on the ballot paper was critical, which is why they spent so much money trying to make sure it was there.

KC

[kc]

So, glad I didn't "bet the house". Have been in Townsville all day scrutineering for KAP and the Thuringowa result is so tight it won't be known for some time.

End result in Numbers 1's is KAP is about 1200 behind LNP with 8000 ish other votes (FF, GR and ALP) to be distributed. Of these, by our count today about 2300 have preferenced and of these about (it was not an accurate count...just watching with clickers while they counted numbers 1's), about 70% of the combined preferences go to KAP and 30% to LNP.

2300 votes. 70% = 1610....30% = 690....difference 920. LNP win by 280

2300 votes 72% Kap = 1656....LNP 28% 644....difference 1175 KAP win by 9 votes

This is literally down to the wire. My best guess, Steve will miss out by an absolute bees dick...OR win by a similar margin.

Now, hand up who thinks the Katter name on the ballot paper was not important??

This is going to come down to less than 100 votes in a seat of 25,000.... 1/4 of 1%

[Dicko]

Explained well, thanks kc

[Homer_Jay]

I think a lot of people who "would have" voted for kap voted for the lnp purely because they wanted to ensure we didn't get another 3 years of capt Bligh
Next election, (if kap does the right thing between now and then) I think it is going to be a different story.
Kap could really hold the balance of power.
I was a little disappointed when it looked like they only had 2 seats, but when you look at the votes they got (under the circumstances) they did very well.

There will be a hell of a lot of people that voted lnp this time that will be looking to vote elsewhere next election!
And most of those people will not be too keen to go straight back to labor

[kc]

I get a similar "feel". I also think KAP should campaign on a "number every box. make your vote count" platform. Most LNP voters put ALP last and ALP voters put LNP last so Katter picks up the majority of preferences from both sides (well before the greens). You are right, IF he does the right thing between now and next election he will end up with a swag of NQ and rural seats. In the Federal election, which has compusory preferential voting (number every box) he would have (on the basis of this electeion) picked up 4 or 5 federal seats. The LNP should not get too cocky......lots of LNP members are elected with much less than 50%. In essense the majority of the electorate did not want them....it was just the "just vote 1" strategy that put them in power...oh, plus the fact that Labor is toxic, particularly in Canberra.

KC

[Chris Ryan]

That's a good result for Steve KC. He is a true champion bloke and did well with FPQ and AFLP so hoping he gets up.

[kc]

Hi Chris,

Agree. Good, knock about bloke. I see Katter's party as the natural progression of TFPQ, moving on from single issue to encompass a broader range but still with the whole "personal freedom" thing typified by fishing, as one of its core values. They still have plenty to learn and no doubt plenty of mistakes they will make but the "green monster" finally has a countering force. North of Rocky and west of the range it polled well into the 20 % + range to the greens less than 5%. While the inner city latte sippers will still vote green, the bush is fighting back....and about bloody time. This is the "fishos" party and a few Katter party senators as well as a dozen or so in the "big house" will be good to see. For those happy to bag the guy....and I know he has a few shortcomings, he is also an open book and so is his party. Get involved, join up, maybe stand for a federal seat, it needs a few more fishos (Like Steve Todeshini) involved and anything is possible. He just proved that, plus I know he and the party, are open to ideas for policy and direction from the members, unlike the majors where members get no say.

KC