Weather forecasts- who do you believe?

[Captain Incredible]

Offshore forecasts for today ranged from 5 knots (Seabreeze to 20-25 knots (BOM). Obviously a bit of disagreement there on what today might look like. And widely differing conditions for either a good day out in comfort & safety or a marginal uncomfortable, wet day. Below is part of an article I have written for a fishing mag which outlines my process. Not that I'm pretending I am a weather guru. More information is better than less. Please excuse the advertorial on how to access BOM info.
"I won’t deal with how the weather works, highs and lows and barometric pressure, etc or how to read a weather chart. There are plenty of text books around on this subject. This is simply about how to gather information from a range of sources to decide whether or not you are heading offshore.

SEABREEZE (http://www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/qld.asp (http://www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/qld.asp))
BUOYWEATHER http://www.buoyweather.com/wxnav5.jsp?tau=null&gs=null&grb=nww3&region=AE&units=e&program=nww3BW1&zoom=null&latitude=-27.0&longitude=153.35&zone=10&bmname=my (http://www.buoyweather.com/wxnav5.jsp?tau=null&gs=null&grb=nww3&region=AE&units=e&program=nww3BW1&zoom=null&latitude=-27.0&longitude=153.35&zone=10&bmname=my) link

SEABREEZE and BUOYWEATHER offer seven day forecasts including wind and sea height predictions. Buoyweather is a subscriber site which requires an annual fee to access the seven day forecasts. Both are excellent sites but usually understate wind predictions by an average 5 knots. This is important to keep in mind.

BOM

BOM information is most easily accessed through the drop down weather menu on the fishing forums, charter home pages and the like without having to wade through the whole BOM site.
Forecasts are limited to two days but the best feature of BOM is the CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. These list the wind strength and direction and rainfall for the last three days in half hour increments. You can see at a glance whether the predictions match reality. And this is really the secret of making good decisions.
When you have looked at a number of predictions indicating a great day on the water when it is actually gusting to 25 knots at the Cape, you can see how important it is to get the real picture from CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. South Westerlies are usually understated on Cape Moreton probably because of the siting of the anemometer.

MARINE WIND FORECAST ( http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml)

This is a really good site which has predictions in three hourly intervals overlaid on a south east Qld chart. It can be a little tricky to operate initially.
NONE OF THESES SITES ARE PERFECT! Think of it as having a conversation with four trusted friends on the topic of weather. Sometimes the weather sites all agree in their predictions, which is great. And sometimes the opinions are split which puts more onus on you to make a good decision. But you should really be looking at all four sites for their predictions and comparing them to the CURRENT OBSERVATIONS."
I hope this helps. And when in doubt, phone a friend. I do!
Cheers,
Keith

[Flex]

From my experience seabreeze is hopeless.They always understate the weather. They are a kiteboarding site and dont cater for fishermen.

Buoy is fairly accurate. They do understate a bit as you said. I find if their forecast agree's with Bom then your in for a good day. EG if BOM has 10-15 and Buoy has 3-4 knots then most times you will have light winds. As bom deffiantely Overstates weather.

But If buoy is saying 3-4knots and Bom has 15-20 then I find it tends to be a bit windier than normal.

I have been keeping a diary of forecast from Bom and buoy the last 12 months,Then writing down forecast v observed weather and seeing the disparity, aswell as reading the Maps to determine weather.

If you live hundreds of km away from the coast like me, you just cant wake up in the morning and choose to go or not. You rely on correct forecasts.

What I have found is learning to read the weather maps has helped me tremendiously.

but 1 thing I have noticed. If BOM says its gunna be 5 knot variable you can bet your bottom dollar it will be 99.9% of the time. Which is why you hardly ever see a 5 knot variable wind from BOM :)

[fisho_83]

I find the Windfinder website to be pretty accurate. It has an 8 day wind, weather, wave etc forecast. This, used in conjuction with the BOM site seems to be the way to go. I am not a huge fan of Seabreeze either.

[Lucky_Phill]

This subject has been covered many times before, but it's always good to get differing points of view or interpretations.

The BoM can offer great info that other sites do not.

Current observations and history tells a good story.

Bouyweather Premium offers a 7 day forecast that is quite accurate ( IMO ) using virtual bouys.

Seabreeze and Windfinder combined work well.

I think the best way to determine a fishing trip based on weather is to get up to 4 forecasts.

Certainly, a forecast for the next 48hrs is going to be the most reliable. A 7 day one is purely speculation... although those that provide a 7 day forecast will tell you they are on the money.

Me:-

Work commitments mean I fish at the drop of the hat. 48hrs notice is a blessing, 24 is the usual.

Knowing I have an opportunity I go:-

Seabreeze, Bouyweather, Windfinder and then scourer the BoM.

When I make plans for trips well in advance, like the Agnes Water / 1770 M & G, the BoM's history got a working over. Historical data reveals a lot about the seasons potential fishable days, that is more days in a row, rather than one good day here and there.

I also take great interest in the High's and Low's, including Isobar positioning.

All the above is for offshore work.


LP.
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[Dignity]

Lately none of the above seem to work for me ither than taking a walk and having a look at the beach. Had a look this afternoon and looked great, the seas were calm BUT there were some big rollers coming in so had a look at the wave bouy at Mooloolaba when I got home and sure enough it was average swell of 1.9m and there were plenty signifiacntly higher than that.

Phil, I used to go to North West Isand a lot and in the early days got a lot of history of wind and weather patterns from BOM although then it used to be by writing a letter, not sure how you would do it now, but it was invaluable information as it was gathered over a long period of time and proved to be pretty well spot on.

[Lucky_Phill]

Absolutely, Dignity.

The history on the BoM is a great insight. Having said that, over the last few years we have been controlled by El Nino and this year La Nina has influenced our weather and of course, fishing.

I am a big fan of La Nina, due to her bringing early season rains and continued rains through-out the year, particularly in winter. River system flushing brings on a rapid increase in fish population ( IMO ).

I am keeping an eye on this for next year. 2 years of La Nina can only be a good thing..... maybe this will have an impact on the current Governments thoughts on Snapper management.


Cheers Phill
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[Cheech]

I find seabreeze pretty accurate for bay fishing. It is worth looking at the high's and low's as Phil mentioned. If you spend some time checking the predictions compared to where the lines are, it makes more sense to understand how they sometimes get it wrong.