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View Full Version : Who got caught by wrong weather forecast?



Scalem
29-05-2011, 07:08 AM
Judging from the hundreds of boats launching at ramps at the Goldy, the waterways down there were set for a very busy day. There was also some kinda event being held at seaworld nara ramp which meant more boaties trying to launch than I have ever seen B4. Also heaps opf charter boats loading up with passengers.... Everyone, including Tim D and I had an ordinary fish, wind blew much harder from the SE than what was predicted, it was simply one of the worste days I have experienced in offshore waters. Swell ( Tim and I called an occasional one coming through a Tsunami) and slop made things.... But we're tough!!::) Turned for home after a couple of hours of bashing the Yalta around through countless potholes.

Anyone else find the same?

Scalem

Captain Seaweed
29-05-2011, 08:24 AM
yep we aere at Pin and surprised at the wind.

outwide1
29-05-2011, 08:31 AM
The forecasters got it really wrong this weekend,its meant to be 8kts at double island and is blowing 15+.Cape morten was meant to be 10-15 and blew 25kts at some stages yesterday.
My plans were canned last night as i could see it was way off.This year has been shit for weather and hope we get a good run of weather soon.

robothefisho
29-05-2011, 08:31 AM
Yep add me to the list, I wasn't happy about it. Talk about wrong.

Prowl n Wolf
29-05-2011, 08:35 AM
same here, went out to caloundra 5 mile was all well till around 10-11 0'clock wind blew alot harder than forecast. made for a bumpy ride home through the bay back to beachmere.

smclaren
29-05-2011, 08:48 AM
Yep ! Same here. Crappy/Sloppy conditions off Mooloolaba. Was meant to be pretty good ... not so !

I have a theory that Seabreeze is not taking into account the localised effects of storm cells on the wind.

My guess is that they predict wind based on wider/larger weather patterns ... but forget about what small storm/cloud events have on a local basis.

But what do I know ? (... as much as Seabreeze as it turns out ... :P)

backlash08
29-05-2011, 08:54 AM
same as last weekend as well, caught out both times, last weekend of m/bha, this weekend off Moreton

PinHead
29-05-2011, 12:29 PM
well..I started work at 4.30 am today..what wind? At least you got out for a fish.

Feral
29-05-2011, 01:38 PM
Yeah, got caught yesterday, took the yak out to a spot that needs low wind to fish comfortable, was a bugger of a day, slugging against and across the wind continually. Barely time for one or two casts before having to move position.

Marlin_Mike
29-05-2011, 02:04 PM
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height


The above is on every forecast, why be surprised if it blows harder or has bigger swell/waves?????????????????? :-?:-?

Why blame the weather man?????????????????

rosco1974
29-05-2011, 02:37 PM
yep me too, got caught off moreton,had a storm come right over us at the northern 29's, blew and pissed down

alleycat
29-05-2011, 02:50 PM
Yep i got caught in the passsage, couldnt drift for wind, nothing like was forecast.

grammel
29-05-2011, 03:07 PM
Yep fished several marks at the 24s from 6.30am to mid day for very little(i mean zero) in unpleasent conditions.But a day on the water is always good.I didnt think the swell was too bad but the wind felt 15 plus and seemed to make a short sharp chop.

DAZMC1
29-05-2011, 03:14 PM
I dont even look at the forecast anymore because when they do get it sort of right they,re a day off.

TREVELLY
29-05-2011, 03:53 PM
Last weekend was a surprise forecast 9knots dropping to 2knots but we got 9 knots (10 to 15offshore) then suddenly a 20 to 25knots Easterly on top of the 2.5m swell - not what I was expecting - it is nice to have a boat that only makes it uncomfortable not unsafe.

Peter4
29-05-2011, 06:04 PM
Forecast for Moreton Bay was spot on...I had a grand day!

trueblue
29-05-2011, 06:19 PM
I fished yesterday and got surprised by the wind that picked up (surprised and quite uncomfortable, not caught out)

Today, I was surprised the opposite way, with an expectation that it would blow up like it did yesterday but then it didn't - so we stayed in the bay when we could have gone wide

but thems the brakes...

we had a great day, and we caught fish - all happy

madmackrel
29-05-2011, 06:22 PM
was out at square patch yesterday winds 25knts plus made for a very crappy day, only managed to boat one snappa and one kingy the sharks managed to clean us up on fish and jigs
Cheers MM :( 8-)

robersl
29-05-2011, 06:43 PM
i fished mud blew 10 kn dropped to about 8 kn thought i would head back to woodypoint and gather bait got to the shipping channel and decided to go home instead glad i did got home and seabreeze had gusts up to 25 kn at the inner beacon just after lunch

shane

Flex
29-05-2011, 08:19 PM
Fished Pearl bay 50nm north of Yeppoon sat/sun.

Forecast was 10-15 sat and 5-10sunday going by buoyweather and seabreeze.

Sat was 10-15early then 20knots later. Had 25knot winds sat night and at good 20knots all day sunday.

4 hour trip home in a direct southerly was awful, forecast was almost complete opposite than what was expected...

TimD
29-05-2011, 09:05 PM
It was certainly rough, and unfishable using soft plastics. I couldnt even get 4oz jigheads down in 60 metres of water.


Bring on some good weather, we have jighead testing to do



cheers tim :)

Muddy Toes
29-05-2011, 09:28 PM
was out at square patch yesterday winds 25knts plus made for a very crappy day, only managed to boat one snappa and one kingy the sharks managed to clean us up on fish and jigs
Cheers MM :( 8-)

I wasn't too far from you then mate.It wasn't exactly the 9 knots they predicted....even with the 40% stronger disclaimer they write certainly didn't cover the 25 knots it was blowing>:(.7 snapper and a pearlie for the effort though but it was bloody hard fishing pulling a 3 knot drift with the para anchor out.

Smithy
30-05-2011, 05:53 AM
That's been my whole May. Not so much the strong winds, you can live with them if you know that is what you get but when the forecasting is so off, cancelling some days when it turns out good and going days when you shouldn't.

fat-buoy
30-05-2011, 08:54 AM
After my brother and I had the misfortune of having to salvage his smashed up half cabin boat on the calm side of Moreton Island years ago when the forecast said 1- 15 knot SE and 30 knot W winds blew up and swamped the boat I will never really be surprised by the forecast... Back then it was Ken Brown on the news saying how it was going to be the next day not a website that is regularly updated.. either way the boat got smashed and I lost all my fishing gear because they got the forecast 100% wrong big time :(

Cheech
30-05-2011, 09:16 AM
After my brother and I had the misfortune of having to salvage his smashed up half cabin boat on the calm side of Moreton Island years ago when the forecast said 1- 15 knot SE and 30 knot W winds blew up and swamped the boat I will never really be surprised by the forecast... Back then it was Ken Brown on the news saying how it was going to be the next day not a website that is regularly updated.. either way the boat got smashed and I lost all my fishing gear because they got the forecast 100% wrong big time :(

About 5 years ago Chong and I were fishing calm side morton with that same forecast and that same change. We pulled the pin early as we could tell it was not going to be good. Then took an hour and a half in the dark just to get to the back of Mud Island.

40% increase over forecast is ok. Complete opposite is another story, and can get dangerous.

PADDLES
30-05-2011, 09:47 AM
unfortunately, i guess we still have to understand that even in this modern age with all the instruments and satellites, mother nature nature still reigns supreme and weather prediction is still an art and not necessarilly a science.

i have a bit of a rule of thumb for the northern bay, even if it's beautiful at home (i'm lucky enough to live close to the water), i look at sea breeze first thing in the morning and if the wind speed indicators at the spitfire channel and the cape haven't shown the wind to have dropped out during the night then i know it'll be pretty rough once i get out into the bay proper. my method does fall in a heap though on those days when it drops right out mid morning and i sit at home sulking cos i got it so wrong and everyone else is out having a good time. for friday and saturday nights the wind just didn't seem to drop out in the bay at all.

Dean1
30-05-2011, 10:40 AM
Yes it was not as nice as to be expected yesterday, just enough wind to be annoying and shake the beers up a bit.

Fished Wide Cal in a 9m Kevlacat for a feed and good times with mates, it was good to give the light gear a run and eat some fresh fish for dinner ;)

Back In Black
30-05-2011, 11:06 AM
Obviously too rough as I spilt one beer & another got broken!
Tony

no chicken tonight
30-05-2011, 05:28 PM
My motto... better to find it rougher than expected and turn for home than to sit at home sulking when it turns out to be flat!

Prowl n Wolf
30-05-2011, 05:36 PM
My motto... better to find it rougher than expected and turn for home than to sit at home sulking when it turns out to be flat!
totally agree, 0nly managed 3-4 hours of fish'n before head'n in, but still beats sit'n at home watch'n the grass grow under the boat.

Scalem
30-05-2011, 05:55 PM
My motto... better to find it rougher than expected and turn for home than to sit at home sulking when it turns out to be flat!

You pretty much summed it up no chicken tonight!

Watching the replies, we have members here with lots of experience who study weather maps, various websites and like myself, pay good money to be trained crossing bars and consult with VMR staff in the attempt to reduce the risk factors associated with bad weather, should it happen despite best planning.

The 40% variance MM mentioned .... I may as well sell the boat and not even go out on days they predict up to 15 knots without bashing the boat, which is what it was on Saturday - HOWEVER, a SW wind and the effect it has on offshore waters is much less severe than a SE wind of the same wind strength. The Bureau didn't get that part right, which is really the worste part of it, then add your 40% to a SE and we have a problem Houston.

No beer on board my boat, but it's real hard to reach for Tims' delli chilli chips with one hand while driving the boat in sloppy conditions..... Had to vaccume the floor before the roaches had a meal overnight!

Thanks everyone for the replies.

Scalem

Dignity
30-05-2011, 07:17 PM
Only managed 4 hours on the water sat afternoon, expecting 8 - 10 knots with maybe 15 knots as insurance but was surprised with the 20 + knots that was blowing, gave it away at 5pm and by the time got back to M'ba the damn wind dropped, go figure. Got a couple of nice snapper although I was really hoping to fish froom 7 - 9pm.

I guess Seabreeze and other sites go off the BOM forecasts officially. How is it with technology the same BOM forecast covers an area from Double Island Point to Point Danger whereas many years ago this area would have been broken up into 7 - 8 different forecasts.

mitchdemeanor
30-05-2011, 08:31 PM
yep I got knocked around a fair bit too yesterday, was at mud too and as soon as I got over the shipping channel on the way back it went to sh*t.

Logged on with vmr sandgate when I left in the morning and the boys there were well on the ball all day. They had plenty on when I was about to head back in but still kept great radio communication. Great job! :thumbsup:

White Pointer
30-05-2011, 08:39 PM
same as last weekend as well, caught out both times, last weekend of m/bha, this weekend off Moreton

G'day,

That must be why. Backlash has been layed up for so long the Gods of weather decided to see if it or you could pass some test. Did you pass?

Regards,

White Pointer

FISHAWN
30-05-2011, 09:59 PM
Did no body not notice the LOW on the synoptic charts which produced the big storm front sitting off the coast ?
Yes seabreeze forecast was good but you cannot take this as gospel.. A quick look at the horizon and charts confirmed that the weather would not be stable.

Axl
31-05-2011, 07:38 AM
Yep add me to the list I had a shocker of a morning on Moreton Bay went out at midnight and it didnt seettle till about 08:30. However the boat got a run and I got some salt spray on me so all was good.

finga
31-05-2011, 07:48 AM
Did no body not notice the LOW on the synoptic charts which produced the big storm front sitting off the coast ?
Yes seabreeze forecast was good but you cannot take this as gospel.. A quick look at the horizon and charts confirmed that the weather would not be stable.
Yep, local knowledge (and even not so local) is a big advantage and we seem to be losing the ability to look out at the sky and say...Bugger, just look at those clouds. Good day for cleaning gear.
This inability to look out the window, so to speak, is also added to by the vast distance people can travel now to have a fish. This distance makes local knowledge a bit of a problem. ie at Evans if I can hear the surf from bed it's sleep in. If I can't hear the surf it's on.
Also people do not seem to be able to read a map with funny lines on them anymore.
This is probably because there's no need to. Seabreeze will do it for us.

Me. Well I hardly refer to those sites for forecasts. I take into account what's been happening, how those funny lines with the numbers are moving across this great continent and look at the magpies and ants and listen to the surf and refer to that feeling in the guts.
Talking to the VMR before launching or when I log on doesn't hurt either.

The clouds don't lie.....

Flex
31-05-2011, 09:57 AM
Maybe we should turn this thread into an educational one?

Im sure there is a range of knowledge here in readng weather maps. Maybe if we pass on our knowledge collectively we can all become better at predicting the weather.

Here's what I look at.
Wind direction,
- Wind generally spins clockwise around a low and anti around a high's down here. From this you can predict prevailing wind direction
- Isobars, Obviously the closer together the stronger the wind, fairly obvious. But this becomes less obvious the further north you go in Australia but typically the map is easy to understand in this regard.
Cold fronts also tend to carry strong winds in their direction of travel, if you see a trough close to your location on a map generally your going to be in for strong winds, even if the isobars are far apart the winds wont be to far away.

If you see rainy clouds about or in the distance it generally indicates potentially unstable weather(i.e low pressure) and you may get a bit of wind. High pressure systems are vastly more stable and especially during winter we can somtimes get 3-4 days of 5-10knot winds in a row..

Thats just a start, One thing Im yet to fully understand is prevailing winter/summer typical weather patterns and what to look out for on a national scale that will indicate potential stong or light winds.

Also during winter you have to be careful of the early morning localised conditions, Often you can get a stiff westerly for a few hours until the land temp equalises to the sea temp, then by about 10-11am you get glassed out conditions and nice afternoons.

Anyone care to add? or discount what I have writted as I am no means and expert..
-

Defore
31-05-2011, 10:00 AM
My motto... better to find it rougher than expected and turn for home than to sit at home sulking when it turns out to be flat!

We use to have a different motto when glider flying " It is better to be standing on the ground wishing you were flying than to be sitting in a glider flying wishing you were standing on the ground" ;D

But I agree with you on boating as long as I am not too far off shore and the sea is not breaking over the top of the boat.
We got lucky on Saturday, went off shore and back before the winds picked up. :D

Ian

Reefmaster
31-05-2011, 10:10 AM
Yep I got caught as well. I was 90km from the Widebay Bar on the shelf and at 6pm Sat night it starting blowing a good 20knots of Southerly but it also bucketed down rain the whole night. Longest night i have spent on the water I can tell you. Dropped out in the morning but got back up just before we headed home which made for a long trip back to the bar. Things you do for fish and thank christ we donged some good ones for our effrots.

Greg

fishfeeder
31-05-2011, 10:50 AM
I think we need a post say Every Friday morning where people can get on and Discuss the weather for the coming weekend for different areas say Gold Coast, Moreton Bay/Offshore and Sunshine Coast. The post doesn't need to be there forever and just replaced each week with new posts.
I think it would help people read and understand the "Funny lines on a map" and how they effect the forcast for an area..
Sure I understand that in the end its up to the person to make his/her mind up if they are going to head out boating but I am sure it can only help others on this site be a bit safer on the water..

Cheers
Brett

Greg P
31-05-2011, 10:53 AM
Fished Wide Cal on Sunday. Fans were on but it was still fishable with the chute. Worked hard for a bag of snaps/pearlies and some nice red throat. Ride home was lumpy but just set the Auto pilot and speed to 19 knots and cruised back to Bribie around 4pm.

If you are waiting for the perfect day to go out then you may never get there. Tough it out.

Scalem
31-05-2011, 06:51 PM
So it looks like I have to A: Delete 3 websites from my favourites in my browser toolbar B: Look closer at isobars on the Beaurea website ( which is where I presumed the 3 websites gather their information from) and make my mind up after C: winding my car window down on the way to the boat ramp at 3am in the morning, stick my head out to see if I can spot any clouds on the horizon and decipher what type they are when its pitch black. Flex, I do however like the idea of learning more, good idea.

Scalem

TimD
01-06-2011, 05:28 PM
Yep, local knowledge (and even not so local) is a big advantage and we seem to be losing the ability to look out at the sky and say...Bugger, just look at those clouds. Good day for cleaning gear.
This inability to look out the window, so to speak, is also added to by the vast distance people can travel now to have a fish. This distance makes local knowledge a bit of a problem. ie at Evans if I can hear the surf from bed it's sleep in. If I can't hear the surf it's on.
Also people do not seem to be able to read a map with funny lines on them anymore.
This is probably because there's no need to. Seabreeze will do it for us.

Me. Well I hardly refer to those sites for forecasts. I take into account what's been happening, how those funny lines with the numbers are moving across this great continent and look at the magpies and ants and listen to the surf and refer to that feeling in the guts.
Talking to the VMR before launching or when I log on doesn't hurt either.

The clouds don't lie.....


What are you smoking finga, it must be good gear ;D


I can tell you now, when i turn up at someones house at 3 or 4 in the morning there are no magpie's or ants to look at, you can look up to the sky but i doubt youll see anything but stars unless its cloudy.


cheers tim :)

thelump
01-06-2011, 06:38 PM
Yep, local knowledge (and even not so local) is a big advantage and we seem to be losing the ability to look out at the sky and say...Bugger, just look at those clouds. Good day for cleaning gear.
This inability to look out the window, so to speak, is also added to by the vast distance people can travel now to have a fish. This distance makes local knowledge a bit of a problem. ie at Evans if I can hear the surf from bed it's sleep in. If I can't hear the surf it's on.
Also people do not seem to be able to read a map with funny lines on them anymore.
This is probably because there's no need to. Seabreeze will do it for us.

Me. Well I hardly refer to those sites for forecasts. I take into account what's been happening, how those funny lines with the numbers are moving across this great continent and look at the magpies and ants and listen to the surf and refer to that feeling in the guts.
Talking to the VMR before launching or when I log on doesn't hurt either.

The clouds don't lie.....

If it was 1 ft and onshore you would hear the surf but you roll over and go to sleep! But it could be 6 ft and blowing offshore you probably would not hear it but it would be a bugger to get across Evans Bar with.

marto78
01-06-2011, 07:12 PM
I must admit that I got caught out yesterday as well.

The BOM site predicted 10-15kts SW in the morning and swinging around to a NE in the arvo, but it barely got above a 5kt southerly all day. :P

I hate it when they get it wrong ;D ;D ;D

turkeyslapper
01-06-2011, 07:21 PM
Mate, you should of checked Seabreeze.

finga
01-06-2011, 07:21 PM
What are you smoking finga, it must be good gear ;D


I can tell you now, when i turn up at someones house at 3 or 4 in the morning there are no magpie's or ants to look at, you can look up to the sky but i doubt youll see anything but stars unless its cloudy.


cheers tim :)
Haven't you fella's ever heard of looking at nature to tell what the weather is going to do.
Have a look during the week. If the ants are coming inside then there's rain going to happen. Have a look at moths at night.
A lot of cloud formations are visible at night unless it's either a moonless night or it's clouded over.
If you look upo and get water in your eyes it's a good chance it's raining.
Look at the stars. What can you see??
Look at the moon. Has it got some rings around it or is it clear?
Look at the barometer over the previous week and learn what it means when the barometer drops suddenly or slowly over 4 days or jumps up in pressure in an hour.
Take note and learn from nature. How do you reckon the long range weather forecasters work?


If it was 1 ft and onshore you would hear the surf but you roll over and go to sleep! But it could be 6 ft and blowing offshore you probably would not hear it but it would be a bugger to get across Evans Bar with.
How do you know where my bed is?
That little example of knowing what is happening where you are is a good example of local knowledge. It would not work over South Evans and definitely will not work out the back heading towards the iron gates.
It works for where my bed is. My grandfather taught us that when I was about 6 years of age in the spot where their house is. That was more then a couple of years ago.

I wonder how marineers and travellers got on before seabreeze??
I wonder how farmers know when to spray or organise harvestors, helicopters, plantings or many other duties they have to know, and predict, the weather for??

I wonder how many looked at the weather map and radars and infrared maps to see what was happening just because of the lack of accuracy of seabreeze and the like which everyone knows about and whinges about when they're wrong.
By what I read here seabreeze is about as accurate as ...well pulling a forcast out of a hat and it's not me complaining about getting caught out because of an inaccurate forcast.

marto78
01-06-2011, 07:27 PM
Mate, you should of checked Seabreeze.

Don't you know that Seabreeze is never right.

Flex
01-06-2011, 07:52 PM
Haven't you fella's ever heard of looking at nature to tell what the weather is going to do.
Have a look during the week. If the ants are coming inside then there's rain going to happen. Have a look at moths at night.
A lot of cloud formations are visible at night unless it's either a moonless night or it's clouded over.
If you look upo and get water in your eyes it's a good chance it's raining.
Look at the stars. What can you see??
Look at the moon. Has it got some rings around it or is it clear?
Look at the barometer over the previous week and learn what it means when the barometer drops suddenly or slowly over 4 days or jumps up in pressure in an hour.
Take note and learn from nature. How do you reckon the long range weather forecasters work?




Care to eloborate on the above comments Finga? and what they mean in terms of weather and what to expect from your experience?

Scalem
01-06-2011, 09:54 PM
Well..... I changed my mind, I was going to say something but I'll just watch what develops in this thread and see what new found techniques I can observe that will give me reason to stay in bed at 3.00am in the morning instead of getting out to make a weather forcast, despite all the websites I visited the night before. For those that are interested these are :
http://www.coastalwatch.com/swell/forecastMain.aspx?page=sfforecasts&location=10
http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml
http://www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/qld.asp
http://magicseaweed.com/Queensland-MSW-Surf-Charts/48/

Scalem

finga
02-06-2011, 05:59 AM
Care to eloborate on the above comments Finga? and what they mean in terms of weather and what to expect from your experience?
Well the most basic is red in the morning shepherd's warning, red in the evening shepherd's are dreaming. pretty self explanatory.
If the breeze is blowing from the west at dawn then there's a good chance it's only going to get worse....and cold
For us if the dog goes into hiding in the morning then a storm in the arvo
Ants inside the house is an indicator of good rains in about 3 days
If we have a fog or frost in the morning then it's going to be a cracker of a day.
Currawong song in the afternoon indicates a cracker of a day the next day.
The sounds of the frogs usually indicate rain coming soon
Rings around the moon can mean a frost is coming or really cold weather (up here)
Cloud formations in the previous couple of days and especially on the day is a good to to watch. Here are some explanations to what they mean http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Formations-and-What-They-Mean&id=366194

The best way is to take note of the little things like where the horse is standing or where the cat is outside and take note of what happens.

Scalem
02-06-2011, 06:52 AM
Interesting..... Not having as go here Finga, but I'll run a checklist...
Well the most basic is red in the morning shepherd's warning, red in the evening shepherd's are dreaming. pretty self explanatory.
If the breeze is blowing from the west at dawn then there's a good chance it's only going to get worse....and cold. Don't care if its cold and westerly winds to me usually means flat bars and flat seas in close
For us if the dog goes into hiding in the morning then a storm in the arvo I don't have a dog
Ants inside the house is an indicator of good rains in about 3 days Ants in the house usually means they have found something to eat, usually the cat food, but otherwise mr Hitman sprays pymethrin dust in all the right places, we are a regular Hitman customer.
If we have a fog or frost in the morning then it's going to be a cracker of a day. Not always true
Currawong song in the afternoon indicates a cracker of a day the next day. Dont get Currowongs here
The sounds of the frogs usually indicate rain coming soon Don't have frogs here either
Rings around the moon can mean a frost is coming or really cold weather (up here) Don't care about the cold
Cloud formations in the previous couple of days and especially on the day is a good to to watch. Here are some explanations to what they mean http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Form...Mean&id=366194 (http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Formations-and-What-They-Mean&id=366194) This will be useful, but I looked, there are many different types, all very hard to see at 3 in the morning, the best I can do is look the previous day if I can remember during work, I usually don't get home till 6 when its dark again.

I don't have a horse either and the cats are indoor cats, so where they sit is largely irrelevant I would think.

Scalem

Flex
02-06-2011, 07:53 AM
Lol Horses and cats? are you taking the piss Finga? :)...

My cat forgets where his ass is cause he's always licking it to check it's there, let alone forecast weather.;D

turkeyslapper
02-06-2011, 08:05 AM
Don't you know that Seabreeze is never right.
Just a little sarcasm on my behalf.

finga
02-06-2011, 08:19 AM
For those who doubt nature can predict the weather then build a weather rock. They never fail.
Here's the instructions on how to build one and how to use one.
http://www.howtodothings.com/hobbies/how-to-make-and-read-a-weather-rock
(that one is taking the p!ss)

Also a question for those who don't believe. How do you think people knew what the weather was going to do before the days of the idiot net??
Did they just take pot luck or what?

Another couple of questions if I may. What effect does a falling barometer have on fishing? What are the pictures on a barometer around the side of falling pressure? Could there possibly be a correlation there somehow?
There are correlations between animals and nature and weather patterns. If you learn them and take note they may be benificial to you especially the new, modern idiot net version of weather prediction is so unreliable.

ozscott
02-06-2011, 08:56 AM
I wish you doubters would just go buy a bloody horse...I find older greys who are called Ted are the best at weather prediction.

Seriously though I know what Finga is saying. While I would put the forecasters ability far, far above mine, I have a barometer (or 2), and several books on boating and general weather and have tried to educate myself a bit over the years and I think for me if the forecasters have said things will be sweet, and I think that too then all good. But if the weather has been mixed, the forecasters say all good and I think thinks dont look so rosey I stay home. I guess doing everything you can to add to the weather and whether (you go fishing or not) question helps.

Cheers

PS. When I was up in Port Douglas with the fam year before last in Jan we went up to Kuranda. It has been raining and there was a cyclone brewing well off the coast - the forecast then from memory was that it only had a small to medium chance of landfall. A fellow in a coffeeshop at Kuranda made me a good coffee and swore black and blue that the birds were all flying the wrong way for Kuranda at that time of year and the cyclone would come in and hit them...well of course several days later it nailed Port Douglas and surrounds including the Tablelands....now I know that cyclones touch down a fair bit up there, but it was interesting and there was something in it. I wonder what would happen if I tied a barometer to my Jack Russell...

Cheers

thelump
02-06-2011, 10:31 AM
Well the most basic is red in the morning shepherd's warning, red in the evening shepherd's are dreaming. pretty self explanatory.
If the breeze is blowing from the west at dawn then there's a good chance it's only going to get worse....and cold
For us if the dog goes into hiding in the morning then a storm in the arvo
Ants inside the house is an indicator of good rains in about 3 days
If we have a fog or frost in the morning then it's going to be a cracker of a day.
Currawong song in the afternoon indicates a cracker of a day the next day.
The sounds of the frogs usually indicate rain coming soon
Rings around the moon can mean a frost is coming or really cold weather (up here)
Cloud formations in the previous couple of days and especially on the day is a good to to watch. Here are some explanations to what they mean http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Formations-and-What-They-Mean&id=366194

The best way is to take note of the little things like where the horse is standing or where the cat is outside and take note of what happens.

I'll give you that one Finga. The morning in question here( the one that caught everyone out) had a lovely bright red sky as we were heading out to sea. The surf noises I get from camping within 200m of the beach at Port Macquarie a lot. I have been laying in the tent thinking it must be pretty small out there today when I have checked it has been solid with quite a strong offshore wind on it. Just my observations mate.

Defore
02-06-2011, 01:37 PM
I wonder what would happen if I tied a barometer to my Jack Russell...

Cheers

Every time he farted there would be a high pressure zone

Ian

ozscott
02-06-2011, 02:07 PM
Yep - and he does a bit of that...I just wonder if it would send him crazier than he is already

Cheers

fishfeeder
02-06-2011, 03:11 PM
OK guys, Seeing as there are some guys who think they can read the weather systems and animal reactions !!
Whats the weather going to be like on Saturday-Sunday this weekend on Moreton Bay and Offshore Moreton ????

Also if you can explain your prediction it might help us Seabreeze readers

Cheers
Brett

Flex
02-06-2011, 04:35 PM
Funny enough the weather this weekend looks similar to last.

Even though there's bugger all isobars across qld there is that trough running down the coast. Also there is a low further south so could be in for similar conditions to last weekend..

I think it will be fine in close but offshore will be a bit nasty.

Whats other's opinions?..

Im was thinking of heading off Rocky, but unsure how far north that trough will extend. looks to be similar north aswell..

business class
02-06-2011, 04:44 PM
weather was ment to be mint last weekend and we fished out wide in 500m and it was CRAP!!!!!!!! we will go again this saturday with the weather saying its going to be PERFECT!!!! but u can bet ur bottom dollar it ends up rough

Scalem
02-06-2011, 05:28 PM
Also a question for those who don't believe. How do you think people knew what the weather was going to do before the days of the idiot net??
Did they just take pot luck or what?[/B]


I guess I'll have to find out the real reasons why there are so many shipwrecks and artificial reefs people donated to the ocean floor from days gone by??

Scalem

Scalem
02-06-2011, 05:43 PM
Lol Horses and cats? are you taking the piss Finga? :)...

My cat forgets where his ass is cause he's always licking it to check it's there, let alone forecast weather.;D
:LMAO:

I have't figured out how to thank under the new changes, but that deserves a special mention. That's gold Flex!! Thanks!! Still laughing!

Scalem

Flex
02-06-2011, 07:30 PM
:LMAO:

I have't figured out how to thank under the new changes, but that deserves a special mention. That's gold Flex!! Thanks!! Still laughing!

Scalem

Hahaha, glad you got a laugh out of it Scalem :)

TimD
02-06-2011, 08:14 PM
Anyone who sit's around watching ants, cats and horses all day for a weather forecast has way too much time on there hands.


cheers tim :)

finga
02-06-2011, 08:25 PM
If you don't want to learn how the predict the weather a bit better by looking towards nature then it's no skin off my nose.
I don't have to justify my standing or beliefs to anyone and I really don't care if you think I'm a fool. I wasn't the one stuck in some crook weather was I?

Some people have said they want to learn how to predict weather a bit better but in the next breathe redicule those who try to offer an alternative that has worldwide acceptance and what may well could be very useful information to know to better predict weather patterns.
All they have to do is stop been so narrow minded and open their eyes and read a bit of information that is very easily available and they may learn something.
If you do just do a simple google or yahoo search with "Can animals predict the weather" as the topic and read some of the results.
Here is just one page I found with a yahoo search.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1621054/can_animals_predict_the_weather.html?cat=7

What does it say about a cat licking it's @rse and cat's in general??
Cats groom more when there's increased static electricity in the air. Their fur loses electrons when relative humidity is low and they become "charged". Grooming wets the hair and the static electricity goes away.
For those that don't know static is an indicator that a storm is coming.

Here is an article by Australian Geographic about using nature to predict weather. I suppose they're a mob of fools too.
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/outdoor/5-ways-to-predict-the-weather-without-a-forecast.htm
What did they say about hair??

But when it boils down I really don't care if you want to learn or not. But don't start whining when the method you have chosen to predict what the weather is going to do is wrong....way bloody wrong.
And don't attempt to redicule those who offer an alternative. You may well be wrong and even worse. That would be been wrong.... and narrow minded to boot.

finga
02-06-2011, 08:26 PM
Anyone who sit's around watching ants, cats and horses all day for a weather forecast has way too much time on there hands.


cheers tim :)
Better then been stuck in crook weather I reckon.

TimD
02-06-2011, 08:39 PM
finga not having a go at you mate, but do you actually ever go fishing ??


cheers tim :)

finga
02-06-2011, 08:54 PM
I fish enough to know not to go too far out when there's a red sunrise.

wiz
02-06-2011, 08:59 PM
It is funny to see the ignorance of some of the posts by so called fishermen. Does not the pursuit of being a successful catcher of fish require a study or familiarisation with the target species habitat and feeding characteristics? Is this not observing nature so as to be able to anticipate recognised cycles. Weather and it's patterns is a part of nature and what Finga has enlightened some of you with is the ability to observe nature, something that modern man is at a total loss to recognise and is clearly evident by the ignorance that man displays in the way he treats this planet.

finga
02-06-2011, 09:14 PM
It is funny to see the ignorance of some of the posts by so called fishermen. Does not the pursuit of being a successful catcher of fish require a study or familiarisation with the target species habitat and feeding characteristics? Is this not observing nature so as to be able to anticipate recognised cycles.
Don't be silly. Fishing is about reading weather predictions on a website; downloading a fishing position from a website and loading that into your GPS and then setting your auto-pilot to go to that spot; drop anchor on that exact spot and then drop something down that you've read about on the net to try and catch a fish.

TimD
02-06-2011, 09:23 PM
Can anyone tell me the forecast for tomorrow going by my cats behaviour today ;D


Sorry i couldnt resist :P


cheers tim :)

Scalem
02-06-2011, 10:44 PM
I DID read one of your links Finga, and I will just say this. There is a lot of sense in going to websites to try make the best of a planned day out on the water. I will quote from the last link you gave from Australian Geographic who put this in perfect perspective for me, maybe you should consider that a majority of people looking at websites do not have a horse, problems with ants, I don't have a dog or frogs in the yard. But the article does point out that some animal behaviour can be helpful - granted.
"To get an idea of what kind of weather to expect all we need to do is browse the web, listen to a news bulletin or pick up a copy of the daily paper. However, if you do find yourself outdoors and out of touch with technology, there are signs that you can look out for to help avoid being stuck in a downpour with your tent fly furiously flapping in the wind."

This article infers if you don't have technology at your fingertips, then look at nature for clues. Fine!! Acknowledged!! Happy?

Scalem

Jarrah Jack
02-06-2011, 11:23 PM
This is the first good stoosh I've read under the new system with no thanks button as such but a chance to hit the likes/ dislikes and some sort of thanks there as well. I notice that no one has given Finga a like or a dislike for which he may be justifiably upset as he is trying pretty hard.

Come back to the shed and I'll give you a few dislikes Finga but I can't here as you're making too much sense..........I think.

I always look at all the local weather stations and see what the wind is then check the surf pics for the swell..After that I ask the dog if she wants to go fishing and its always yes..

Flex
03-06-2011, 05:51 AM
All in all thanks to everyone on their prespective on weather prediction.

Now Im sure I'm in a situation similar to others, I live 300km away from water. So when I go fishing all I have is weather and sea temp charts to go by.

Have a look at Sunday's weather for Offshore water's for Barrier reef. Its got 10-15 knots. then coastal waters has 5-10?? in a NE easterly? Do you think the 10-15 is a bit cautious for offshore weather?

Looking at the map there is zero Isobars across the most of the state, Im not sure what that trough will do to the wind?Generally a trough is a prelude to cold front, which can mean nasty winds. I can see alot of cold air flowing up from the coastal low and high over middle of Aus.

thoughts?..

Scalem
03-06-2011, 06:59 AM
Forecast Overview
The source of the ESE swell is a complex low pressure trough extending east to west across the northern Tasman and an embedded low lying just off the North Coast, close to Coffs Harbour. The trough and low sustain a strong ESE fetch across the central Tasman Sea in conjunction with a high pressure system over the southern Tasman supporting the ridge across its northern flank;




Read more: http://www.coastalwatch.com/swell/forecastMain.aspx?page=sfforecasts&location=10#ixzz1O9XtBVBv

finga
03-06-2011, 07:04 AM
I DID read one of your links Finga, and I will just say this. There is a lot of sense in going to websites to try make the best of a planned day out on the water. I will quote from the last link you gave from Australian Geographic who put this in perfect perspective for me, maybe you should consider that a majority of people looking at websites do not have a horse, problems with ants, I don't have a dog or frogs in the yard. But the article does point out that some animal behaviour can be helpful - granted.
"To get an idea of what kind of weather to expect all we need to do is browse the web, listen to a news bulletin or pick up a copy of the daily paper. However, if you do find yourself outdoors and out of touch with technology, there are signs that you can look out for to help avoid being stuck in a downpour with your tent fly furiously flapping in the wind."

This article infers if you don't have technology at your fingertips, then look at nature for clues. Fine!! Acknowledged!! Happy?

Scalem
I didn't know there was internet connections out wide. Is there??
So what signs do you look for that would indicate an impending change in weather conditions during a day of fishing??
Or is there an internet connection and you take the lap-top and surf the net so you can be told what's happening??
Or do you just get caught out and have a whine about the method of prediction you have chosen??

Scalem
03-06-2011, 07:20 AM
You are on a different Tangent now Finga, it's your determination that is clouding your view. We were talking about making predictions before we make to decision to go, and listening to frogs and watching what the pooch does might work for you, doesn't for me. Now you are talking about once we are out there. Yes, I look at the clouds, listen to VMR weather forecasting and go home if weather changes. Can't take a horse, cat and don't have a dog. No ants in the Yalta either!! Now before you think I am going to keep going in a longsuffering spar with you on AF like on previous occasions you are wrong, you have the time, I do not, gotta go to work! I think you have made your point, achnolwledged as I said before, thanks for your views! Over and out!

Scalem

Deanom
03-06-2011, 10:25 AM
Guys,
We also got caught out by the wrong wind forecast, but had fun at the 50's of Goldy.
One thing I note on this thread is that some people misunderstand the concept of the 40% gust speed.
The wind speeds that are forecast and recorded are averaged over a period (dont exactly know the period but suspect it is about 10min). The 40% higher reference to wind speed is for gusts which are normally averaged over about 3 seconds (or there abouts).
40% appears to be a statistical weighting factor to multiply the mean speed to get the shorter period gust speed.
If the forecast was for 10-15 knots and the recorded windspeed is 20-25knots, then the forecast is certainly out. Gust speeds for a recored 20 knot wind would be about 28knots and for a 25knot wind a gust speed would be about 35knots if the weighting factor is to be relied apon.
I believe a similar thing applies to the max wave height although I think it is normally doubled from the average because two waves may superimpose on each other if direction shifts.
Could be wrong here and dont have time for a comprehensive google search, but my 2cents anyway.
Dean

Defore
03-06-2011, 01:36 PM
Can anyone tell me the forecast for tomorrow going by my cats behaviour today ;D


Sorry i couldnt resist :P


cheers tim :)

That is easy, the cat is saying "F**ked if I know"

Tim you really need to have a bucket of water on standby for those cats ;)

Ian

timddo
03-06-2011, 02:41 PM
I gotta agree with Finga..
If the ants are coming into the house, it means rain is comming (With rain comes storms and winds.) Or your a dirty Bast...d

On another scenario
IF the dogs and cats are running away, the end of the world is coming to a near. So going fishing or not makes no difference.