Seabreeze Accuracy

[ahamay]

Since I've been doing a few trips offshore from the Seaway, I've been learning hard the weather patterns and watching the forecast and tides etc to better pick the current weather and what might be on the way etc. Here is a snapshot from today. Seabreeze is usually pretty accurate but this is a shocker:

DOUBLE ISLAND POINT TO POINT DANGER
Friday until midnight: Wind: E/SE 15/20 knots north of Cape Moreton, 10/15
knots south of Cape Moreton. Seas: 1.7 metres, easing to 1.2 metres south of
Cape Moreton. Swell: E/SE 1.5 to 2.0 metres. Scattered showers and local
thunder.

http://ahamay.us/ausfish/7day1.png

http://ahamay.us/ausfish/7day2.png

[fat-buoy]

I found out the hard way not to put too much trust in the weather forecast...

A number of years ago Ken ? at the end of the news said 10 -15k S/E winds and the winds blew up to 30k westerly and sunk the boat moored on the western side of Moreton Island.. by the time we realised the weather was set in it was too dangerous to board the boat to get to deeper waters and the surf (on the calm side) was breaking over the boat and rolled it over. :(

[charleville]

In relation to Moreton Bay, I have often found Seabreeze to be pretty good when conditions are reasonably stable but if the weather is chopping and changing a bit over a couple of weeks, I have found that the BoM can be more reliable.

The thing that Seabreeze has going for it to some extent is that the forecast is shown over a 24 hour period rather than a point forecast such as "15 - 20 Knots" which may only apply later in the day whilst the mornings may be quite glassy, especially in summer.


Of course, no forecaster will ever claim to getting it always right. The real aim of forecasting, whether it be weather, economics conditions or sales, is to minimise the error.


.

[PADDLES]

that's exactly what i reckon charlie, when the weather is slow moving seabreeze isn't too bad, but bom seems better when stuff is changing quickly. i always check both of them anyway and then compare it with the "live" info off seabreeze.

[charleville]

i always check both of them anyway and then compare it with the "live" info off seabreeze.



Yup. Ditto.

I have also been known to winch the boat back on to the trailer at the ramp at the point of launching if a returning boatie tells me that the conditions are pretty rough out there.


.

[D river]

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/marine/wind/index.jsp
Try this link out its a really good 1 n is pretty accurite from what I've experienced. I've ignored it a couple of times in favour of seabreeze's better news only wake up 100k out getting punnished like the BOM site said I would be.

[FishHunter]

AFAIK Seabreeze gets their info from BOM, Windfinder is another pretty good one and Willy's weather is another one allthough Willy seems to be whacky sometimes.

[thelump]

I never use seabreeze by itself. I always use in conjunction with BOM, Wave heights from the waverider buoys and Coastal watch web cams for an accurate swell inicator and synoptic charts. Also check Buoyweather. If they are all of the same opinion its a pretty safe bet.

[squidly]

I never use seabreeze by itself. I always use in conjunction with BOM, Wave heights from the waverider buoys and Coastal watch web cams for an accurate swell inicator and synoptic charts. Also check Buoyweather. If they are all of the same opinion its a pretty safe bet.



Well I think they all got it wrong today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[the gecko]

I prefer to read 4 day synoptic charts.

[NEWBY]

I go to Seabreeze because its quick, then the synoptics. Then I look at weatherzone for the general weather and they also take the marine forecast from BOM then I check the whole lot with Buoyweather to which I subscribe. Buoyweather also has sea surface tems etc.
Normally they all lign up if they dont, I pick the one that suits me and go anyway...;)

[Runamuck]

I never use seabreeze by itself. I always use in conjunction with BOM, Wave heights from the waverider buoys and Coastal watch web cams for an accurate swell inicator and synoptic charts. Also check Buoyweather. If they are all of the same opinion its a pretty safe bet.

I must agree, i use a combination of a few.

[Scalem]

I elected to listen to swell predictions found at Coastalwatch http://www.coastalwatch.com/swell/forecastMain.aspx?page=sfforecasts&location=10 and stayed in the bay, looking for fish at the 4 beacons. But I heard some radio chatter channel 21 where somebody double hooked up on HOO. Must be diehards who don't care about 2 meter swells, unless they caught them in slighly sheltered waters... Left me wondering if I had taken the chance and fished offshore instead. NUP! No way! I can wait for better weather!8-)

Some discrepancy I found is the graph on seabreeze reports swell in meters, but coastalwatch reports in feet. What I found is seabreeze can say 2 meters and coastalwatch says 3.6 feet. If there is roughly 3 feet to a meter, these sites are reporting two different things for the same location.

Scalem

[PADDLES]

depending where you are heading for, and if it is daylight, have a quick look on one of the surf camera's on coastalwatch as well. you'll get a good idea of wind from looking at the she-oaks or clubby flags (if they're out) and also sea the swell and the slop

[Noelm]

I think people lose sight of the fact that these are weather PREDICTIONS, there is no hard and fast rules to say mother nature will continue to do what is anticipated, they can only check the data provided and make a prediction, if they get it wrong, then so be it, for really bad storms and so on, predictions are pretty good, but to say the wind will be (say) 15K and some boater goes out on this, but the wind comes up to 25K, then so be it, weather changes, get used to it. I for one could never imagine going boating based entirely on a weather prediction, then having a whinge if it was not right.

[Dignity]

I throw a straw in the air, check out what the ants are doing and then if it looks good start annoying the missus until she tells me "why don't you go fish'n and get out of my hair".

Seriously though I try to use all the info at hand, I have noticed that Seabreeze updates their charts quite regularily and their wave heights appear to be closer to the Hmax of the Wave Rider Bouys - I am refering to the one at Mooloolabah. I guess the issue is if you look at boating weather forecasts they cover an enourmous area - Double Island Point to Point Danger is a huge area nad the difference in conditions between the two can be vast.

And even Seabreeze refers to the "Sunshine Coast" - what area does this cover, I have been out on days where it has been pretty ordinary off Mooloolabah but my mate was fishing off Noosa and didn't have the same conditions.


I recall days past when we used to phone BOM and get a recorded message that gave different wind speeds, both wind and wave direction and wave heights broken down into about 10 different regions within this all encompassing Di to PD but then technology raised its ugly head and we are expected to accept a much reduced service covering this huge area I know you cant get weather predictions correct all the time, after all it is a prediction but surely there must have been a lot of local input into the old forecasts compared to now.

How do we get this service back.

[Axl]

Seabreeze sure got it wrong yesterday we got pounded.

But as most people are saying use a combination of a few different sites and at the end of the day stick your head out of the window before hooking up the boat and make a decsion on the current conditions.

Thats normally what I do sometimes it works some times you'll get a pounding.

[thelump]

I elected to listen to swell predictions found at Coastalwatch http://www.coastalwatch.com/swell/forecastMain.aspx?page=sfforecasts&location=10 and stayed in the bay, looking for fish at the 4 beacons. But I heard some radio chatter channel 21 where somebody double hooked up on HOO. Must be diehards who don't care about 2 meter swells, unless they caught them in slighly sheltered waters... Left me wondering if I had taken the chance and fished offshore instead. NUP! No way! I can wait for better weather!8-)

Some discrepancy I found is the graph on seabreeze reports swell in meters, but coastalwatch reports in feet. What I found is seabreeze can say 2 meters and coastalwatch says 3.6 feet. If there is roughly 3 feet to a meter, these sites are reporting two different things for the same location.

Scalem

You need to remember Scalem that Coastalwatch is primarily a surfing website. 3ft to a surfer is a lot different to a boaties 3ft. A 3 ft wave when surfing will be overhead so a boatie would probably call it for 2m.
I will still give it a crack if the waverider is saying 2m it just depends on the direction of the swell. 2m from the south and the SPB will be a pretty flat as the swell pushes straight past. If it has a fair bit of east it may make things interesting but not impossible.
My opinion anyway.

[theoldlegend]

Yup. Ditto.

I have also been known to winch the boat back on to the trailer at the ramp at the point of launching if a returning boatie tells me that the conditions are pretty rough out there.


.

Without putting too fine a point on it Charlie, is your winch left handed or right handed?


TOL

Jeez I'm bored.............

Don't know how many times I've logged on today...........

[charleville]

Without putting too fine a point on it Charlie, is your winch left handed or right handed?




How do you tell? ::)

I use it with both hands. I usually undo the ratchet and wind it without all of the noise that it makes until the last few inches.

I actually have an electric winch but which through my own stupidity I managed to strip a gear on but I have never bothered fixing it because I reckon that a bit of arm muscle exercise is not such a bad thing to keep up as one gets older.

I am probably quicker winding the boat in by hand anyway that what the even noisier electric winch used to do for me. 8-)


.

[marto78]

I throw a straw in the air, check out what the ants are doing and then if it looks good start annoying the missus until she tells me "why don't you go fish'n and get out of my hair".

Seriously though I try to use all the info at hand, I have noticed that Seabreeze updates their charts quite regularily and their wave heights appear to be closer to the Hmax of the Wave Rider Bouys - I am refering to the one at Mooloolabah. I guess the issue is if you look at boating weather forecasts they cover an enourmous area - Double Island Point to Point Danger is a huge area nad the difference in conditions between the two can be vast.

And even Seabreeze refers to the "Sunshine Coast" - what area does this cover, I have been out on days where it has been pretty ordinary off Mooloolabah but my mate was fishing off Noosa and didn't have the same conditions.


I recall days past when we used to phone BOM and get a recorded message that gave different wind speeds, both wind and wave direction and wave heights broken down into about 10 different regions within this all encompassing Di to PD but then technology raised its ugly head and we are expected to accept a much reduced service covering this huge area I know you cant get weather predictions correct all the time, after all it is a prediction but surely there must have been a lot of local input into the old forecasts compared to now.

How do we get this service back.


This is the number for BOM weather predictions in Moreton Bay.
1300360428
Cheers Marto

[finga]

One thing to remember:
Weather forecasts are nothing but horoscopes with numbers.






Jeez I'm bored.............

Don't know how many times I've logged on today...........
Have you been so bored you send yourself a PM??
Can you send yourself a PM??
Have you ever been so bored you think about crap like that??
:-?

[Stressless]

Seabreeze Cairns today predicted 3knots at 8.30am, increasing to 9-12 knots after 10.00am.

We were in 20-25knots, possibly 30-35 in some of the scuds that came through, from 8.30am until our return to the ramp at 11.15am.

Some of the game boats outside the reef reported a constant 30-35knots with lightning and rain.

I usually rely on a combination of Seabreeze, BOM and Buoyweather and average the results.

I'll still go out if Seabreeze predicts good conditions and wear it if it turn to crap

[byron_moses]

not sure if u have tried willy's weather mate i find it very good

[Spot82]

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/marine/wind/index.jsp
Try this link out its a really good 1 n is pretty accurite from what I've experienced. I've ignored it a couple of times in favour of seabreeze's better news only wake up 100k out getting punnished like the BOM site said I would be.

I always go off the BOM windmaps, seems the most accurate from what I have experienced, espically one or two days out. Use seabreeze to check current wind and look at the synoptic charts, also use the current weather pages on BOM mainly stations at Sandy Cape, Elliot and Herron Islands and 1770.

Why is a 2 metre swell such a big deal? If there is a slow wave period and not much chop even 3 or 4 metres isn't much to worry about unless you are crossing a bar on a run out tide, which no one with half a brain would do in a 4m swell. I would rather 5-10knots on a 3-4m swell than a 1m chop from the wrong direction any day of the week. :P

Anthony