2 Cyclones In The Pacific

[Far side]

The weather patterns will be closely watched in the next couple of days
Have a look at the fiji weather satellite picks first time I have seen 2 cyclones like that side by side.

With regards to the cyclone tracking towards queensland I hope they are letting some water out of our 97% full dams so they can do the job they were designed for
Flood Mitigation

With the ground at saturation point from the past rains any more will simply run off

[PinHead]

no need to let any water out of Wivenhoe..what they are stating as whatever percentage it is , is for water storage. It can hold the same amount again for flood mitigation. When in flood mode they open the gates as the tide goes out and all should be reasonably good.

[Far side]

Wivenhoe’s flood control facility, together with the existing flood mitigation effect of Somerset Dam, will substantially reduce the heights of relatively small floods.

An interesting use of words "relatively small floods". Having experienced the 74 floods I would say it wasn't a relatively small flood. I also remember the water going over the splillway of somerset and the fear that they were going to lose the dam due to the pressure and volume.

[finga]

Here comes the rain dood, do, dood.
Sounds like a song I heard once.

[Peter4]

Don't panic: cyclone fears dismissed

March 15, 2010 - 6:55AM


Fears a category five cyclone would cut a destructive path through northern Queensland this week have been dismissed by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Cyclone Ului is not expected to hit land at any time, forecaster Vikash Prasad told brisbanetimes.com.au this morning.
''It's not expected to hit the coast, [which] is something that is exciting a lot of people and we don't want any panic,'' Mr Prasad said.
''The cyclone is 1500km away from the [North Queensland] coast and moving at 10km/h, it's a very slow system. If you're going from Brisbane to Cairns at 10km/h how long will it take? That's how it is.
''It's going to slow down further so we're not expecting it to hit the coast at all and it will remain out in the Coral Sea and start moving southwards after Tuesday.''
Mr Prasad said Ului would remain at least 1000 kilometres from the Queensland coast and as it moved south would stay about 500 kilometres off Fraser Island.
''We're not expecting any direct impact from this system at all,'' Mr Prasad said.
''[North Queensland residents] can relax totally. As long as they're not going out in the water you'll be fine on land.''
Strong wind warnings are current for offshore waters but do not apply to inshore waters.
Mr Prasad said the winds would be marginally gale force and similar to winds experienced at the weekend.
The cyclone is now a category four but is expected to re-intensify to a category five - the highest BoM cyclone category - later today.
It had rapidly intensified from a category three to category five on Saturday night before weakening slightly in the past 24 hours.
A spokeswoman said Emergency Management Queensland was monitoring the situation.

[Far side]

Mr Prasad obviously isn't talking to other members of his team
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY00061/IDYEC003.aus.20100320_1800.png

[captain rednut]

hey far side i just noticed the 4day sanoptic chart shows the cyclone down a long way! maybe east of fraser island on saturday and they are saying its all good????? what the???

[Far side]

hey far side i just noticed the 4day sanoptic chart shows the cyclone down a long way! maybe east of fraser island on saturday and they are saying its all good????? what the???

Yes this part of BOM is the wind forcaster we use it to check against seabreeze and in the short term its is usually right.

The prediction of cyclone paths in definately not an exact science for example this wind forcaster had the cyclone off fraser island at the same time this morning so its has moved around a bit as they have recalculated. but it wll get more accurate as the cyclone gets closer.
In fact if you look at the Fiji weather site they have it tracking south east away from the coast Lets hope they are right we have had enough rain

Lets see what is happening tomorrow AM 12 hours is a lot of time in the life of a cyclone

[Dicko]

Just had a look at the high seas forecast for that area.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal zero south [13.0S]
longitude one hundred and fifty eight decimal nine east [158.9E]
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 105 knots
Central pressure: 925 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 105 knots near the centre increasing to 120 knots by 0600 UTC
16 March.


Winds above 64 knots within 35 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 55 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas.


Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 15 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.3 south 158.0 east
Central pressure 930 hPa.
Winds to 120 knots
At 0600 UTC 16 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 13.5 south 157.5 east
Central pressure 916 hPa.
Winds to 120 knots



Anyone want to jump in the tinny and head out for a look ?

[vertico]

iam keen to head out and test out the stabi :P

[the baker]

A little pic

[Marlin_Mike]

Check out this sattelite link......awesome, mother nature is sure a cranky bitch soemtimes

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html