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View Full Version : Monday 16/2 "Variable 5-10" Weather offshore - I think not!



Moonlighter
16-02-2009, 06:26 PM
The Bureau forecast last night for offshore Moreton Bay said variable and light winds 5-10 knots today. Beauty!!

So we hit the water this morning, fang across the Bay at dawn, around Combie, along Moreton and lo and behold, there's 20 knots of SE at the Cape and white caps everywhere, wind whistling thru our guides!!:o :o

The radio call comes over the VHF that the 5.05am forecast has now changed to 15-20 knots SE!! Do tell!!

How on earth can the bureau get the forecast so wrong just 12 hours earlier? This isn't a small alteration, its a substantial change that with the technology they have you would think would have surely been predictable.

End result = wasted RDO amd 105 litres of unleaded down the gurgler, and no fish. Tahnks guys, a lot>:( >:( >:(

Do you think they should be able to do better than this forecasting debacle?? I DO!!

ML

frankgrimes
16-02-2009, 06:41 PM
Yep forcast def. looked the goods last night...this time of year though the weather is extremely unpredictable in QLD, very tough to predict with any degree of certainty even with the technology available.

Mick

bigjimg
16-02-2009, 07:32 PM
Moonlighter try checking the weather station reports at the Cape before you head of from home.If you havn't got it 1300 360 428, press 1 once you hear the voice, then goes to the weather forecast,another couple of 1 presses will bring up the weather station reports. And yes it can be way off the mark sometimes just look at the strong wind warnings the week just gone.Have done some of the best fishing during strong wind warnings,at these times you can't complain can you.Jim

red rock cod
16-02-2009, 07:45 PM
look on seabreeze . It gives you the wind reading at the cape and spitfire Channel

Jeremy
16-02-2009, 08:27 PM
I absolutely agree though, BOM can't predict the next day's weather, let alone giving 3-7 day forecasts, that is just dreaming. You would think they could do alot better that that in 2009. Sh!ts you to tears doesn't it.

Jeremy

Angla
16-02-2009, 09:19 PM
Many a day I have suffered in choppy weather when much better was predicted. Should I mention the days I have spent washing the car only to find a glass day has gone by when it was predicted to be choppy

I predict a turbulent year for weather conditions

Chris

lethal098
17-02-2009, 07:34 AM
yeah agree completely, we were at the ramp at Mooloolaba at 3am with a bit of breeze from the SE, got out on the water and were faced with about 10 knot SE, we decided to punch into it expecting to see the wind drop, not a bad trip out to the banks, was easily fishable, not that there were many keepers, well when we turned for home well that hurt, 2 hours af smack and bang, still hurting now. yeah i think they should be able to predict a little better than that, surely it can t be that hard. cheers Lethal

peterbo3
17-02-2009, 09:40 AM
Hi Lethal,
We were out at Murphys. The swell was a bit nasty - 2M plus with the odd one breaking. Plenty of fish but all undersize. Saw a few boats go past but we were on our own out there.

michael_mad_fisho
17-02-2009, 10:11 AM
gday guys
messed ya dates up a bit there ML
i think we all have the skills to become a top notch weather man i heard all you have to do is walk out your front door lick your finger and take a stab at the wind speed hahaha

lethal098
17-02-2009, 10:22 AM
peter, what time were you on the water??? we had 2 boats with us at the mid banks, i was in 5.5 centre console formosa(Jonno's boat aka Tuna Boy), and a mates 6.2 quinnie off shore, we also had a few breakers and truckloads of undersize red throat, 3 keepers and a couple of reefies. was not a fun ride home. cheers Lethal

Muddy Toes
17-02-2009, 10:51 AM
Same story here. Left Noosa at day break yesterday with near perfect conditions, heading for the banks. Got past the heads and found everything that was predicted on BOM and Seabreeze was wrong. Wind was more like 25knts, waves over a meter and wind direction was also completely different to forecast. Only went 1/2 hour before we decided 2 more hours of that wouldn't be fun and decided to fish nearer reefs.

Wasted fuel, bait and time. Know how you feel ML. And yes, we did check seabreeze right before we left home at 1am and it said it was fine. When we got back to ramp at 10;30am we checked forecast again and wind and wave height had doubled. Now they tell us. Hopefully more pleasant fishing conditions for the Bank on Thursday.

MT

Teachnthekids
17-02-2009, 11:55 AM
Seabreeze is normally closer to the mark than BOM but hey what do you expect from a mob that thinks that 50% chance of a shower is acceptable forcasting.

Spose they cant be wrong then.

Cheers
Rob

peterbo3
17-02-2009, 01:09 PM
Lethal,
We were at Murphys from about 0900. Was hoping for a bit of action on the tide change around 1300. Only action was the wind picked up so we headed back about 1345. Lots of colour on the sounder but they liked it too much on the bottom.
I think I will be sticking to places like Murphys on doubtful days as it does fish well at times & is a lot closer than the Banks or Tempest. Even factoring in the drive from Albany Creek it is a viable option, more so when the fish will not play the game.
I was in the Fisher in my avatar.

Rufus
17-02-2009, 01:37 PM
Hey to all,

As the weather can be so unpredictable and the forecasts so erratic I have a look at the following site. It is a lot closer to the mark then Seabreeze and BOM. Have a look and see what you think.

Regards, Rufus

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/94578.html

Scroll down the page to see daily forecasts

kokomo
17-02-2009, 01:46 PM
any idea how to predict weather??
any idea how hard it is to predict weather??
any idea how unstable the weather was last week/weekend.. ??

maybe you should actually read and understand the synoptic situation + weather maps add that to the BOM/seabreeze forecast and you will be much better off

i am not surprised at all how the weather turned out

Skusto
17-02-2009, 02:07 PM
we went out sunday arvo expecting to have a reasonable night followed by a magic monday. ended up with 2 pearlies at 3.5kg weighed and to at 2kg that was about it for the whole night ended up goin into to yellow patch for a kip the was goin to head out early morning till we headed round the cape into the nasty se wind decided we had enough for a feed and left. Sunday afternoon was magic out there!

Just_chips
17-02-2009, 03:26 PM
This is the first time in a while the BOM has predicted the wind to be less than actual, usually they are atleast 5 - 10 knots above seabreeze and the actual weather on the day.

I believe that teh BOM forecast this was to avoid situations where they can be held accountable for somebody heading out in bad conditions and blaming the BOM for their own poor decision.

Kev

Jeremy
17-02-2009, 04:50 PM
any idea how to predict weather??
any idea how hard it is to predict weather??
any idea how unstable the weather was last week/weekend.. ??

maybe you should actually read and understand the synoptic situation + weather maps add that to the BOM/seabreeze forecast and you will be much better off

i am not surprised at all how the weather turned out

Get real. I rely on the BOM to do that for me. I have a limited understanding of weather charts etc, but I am sure theirs is better. If they issue a FORECAST, there is a reasonable expectation that that is what the weather will be. If it is too hard, they should just say so.

Jeremy

Moonlighter
17-02-2009, 06:43 PM
Hi Kokomo

Give me a break please.:-*

I've been fishing the Bay and offshore for 30 years now and yes, I do look at the charts and form my own views about what seems likely to happen compared with the forecast - within reason!

But ultimately like everyone else I expect the bureau/seabreeze forecasts, less than 8 hours earlier, to be somewhere close to the mark, not 180 deg wrong like they were the other day.

If you're so good at this forecasting caper - you seem to know all the criteria for doing it - how come you're not working at the bureau? ;)

Whoops, its just becaome clear to me ::) ::) was it your forecast we're all criticising?;D ;D

ML

ShaneC
17-02-2009, 06:55 PM
ML,
We were out there too, had a magic day Sunday and decided with the forecast the way it was we would back up and do it again Monday. We were actually coming back in around the Cape (one of the boys was a tad green), when someone mentioned on the VHF that the forecast had been updated. Ended up fishing the Trench for very little action..... but, as happens a lot, the trip back across the day was magic while it was still blowing its boobs off at the Cape.

You weren't alone mate.

Horse
17-02-2009, 08:58 PM
maybe you should actually read and understand the synoptic situation + weather maps add that to the BOM/seabreeze forecast and you will be much better off

i am not surprised at all how the weather turned out

Congratulations kokomo ;D . Even a broken clock is right twice a day8-)

To suggest that you can predict the weather accuratly from the synoptic situation is pretty dodgy to say the least:P . I did a couple of climatology subjects at Uni and also work in an industry reliant on the vagaries of the weather. My staffing levels can vary by up to 500% due to changes in weather conditions. I watch what is happening several times a day as it is important to be able to predict changes. The modelling used by the forecasts is complex and they don't always get it right but it is a long way better than looking at outdated synoptic charts and trying to guess what is happening in the three dimensional dynamic atmoshere.
Most people get caught out at times but if you have been tracking a few of the forecasts then you should have a pretty good idea of what to expect

Giveitacrack
17-02-2009, 10:07 PM
Mate ,off the southern goldy was a glass out til 1000hrs maybe 5 knots today..better luck next time.

Smithy
18-02-2009, 05:09 AM
Called it off at the ramp just then for today. Came home and Seabreeze is still all green arrows and the BOM are 10-15s. DI and the Cape are showing around 20 of ESE. You can't win atm. Yesterday was a pearler.

Jabba_
18-02-2009, 05:22 AM
Mate ,off the southern goldy was a glass out til 1000hrs maybe 5 knots today..better luck next time.
I'll second that.
It was glassed out conditions on Monday and Tuesday untill around 10:00-10:30...

nautical prince
18-02-2009, 06:06 AM
i know that feeling wasted fuel time and having to clean the boat i look on the net at what the wind has done through the night and then i make my mind up allso try bouy weather it pretty good

Moonlighter
19-02-2009, 05:47 PM
Kokomo seems to have disappeared off this thread, maybe an unexpected "change" got him/her?:-X :-X :-X

insideout
20-02-2009, 08:22 AM
yes ,ur not alone, we got smashed here in hervey bay also, travelling back from the southern gutters, took 2 .5 hours and alot of pounding... now i have gone back to default settings....do not go out on the day , if the day before was bad..